Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

689 
WGUS74 KMAF 140127
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
827 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMC025-TXC165-140315-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150614T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GAINES-LEA-
827 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT/915 PM
MDT/ FOR CENTRAL LEA AND WESTERN GAINES COUNTIES...

AT 822 PM CDT...GAINES COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED FLOODING ON 
HWY 214 NORTH OF SEMINOLE WITH PORTIONS OF THE ROAD UNDERWATER.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEMINOLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING/900 PM MDT SATURDAY EVENING/ FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10330 3295 10252 3253 10260 3253 10310
      3239 10332 3256 10349

$$

299 
WGUS74 KMAF 140222
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
922 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMC025-TXC165-140315-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150614T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GAINES-LEA-
922 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT/915 PM
MDT/ FOR CENTRAL LEA AND WESTERN GAINES COUNTIES...

AT 912 PM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING ON HWY 
385 BETWEEN COUNTY ROADS 103 AND 124.  REPORTS INDICATE NUMEROUS
COUNTY ROADS NORTHWEST OF SEMINOLE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.  SEMINOLE 
AND SEAGRAVES FIRE DEPARTMENTS PULLING CARS OUT OF DITCHES.  THE STORM
THAT PRODUCED THIS FLOODING WAS LOCATED 21 MILES EAST OF SEMINOLE 
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING/900 PM MDT SATURDAY EVENING/ FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10330 3295 10252 3253 10260 3253 10310
      3239 10332 3256 10349

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is TSRA affecting
terminals through this evening. Currently have convection near
CNM, PEQ, INK and FST with the general movement to the east.
Activity looks to continue its progression east, affecting HOB and
MAF in the next hour or two. Currently thinking is that this
activity will clear all terminals to the east by 14/06Z but will
continue to monitor trends and amend TAFs if this timing changes.
Strong to severe storms can be expected and will be capable of
producing large hail, strong winds and heavy rainfall resulting in
brief periods of low vsbys. The average wind direction will remain
SE however any thunderstorm may produce erratic speeds/directions.
Our attention then turns to early Sunday morning when MVFR stratus
is expected to affect all but FST and PEQ through mid morning.
Otherwise, could very well see another round of convection Sunday
afternoon but will wait to include mention until later TAF cycles.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...

It will be another active day across the area with the potential for
severe weather across SE New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon
and evening. A shortwave trough slowly progressing east across the
southwest CONUS will provide support for thunderstorm activity.
Morning clouds have not hindered destabilization much at all and
continue to break up across West Texas. Cumulus have started popping
up in the Davis Mountains along with some isolated storms. Good
moisture will be present east of the dryline with locations seeing
low to mid 60s dewpoints. Instability will also be good with a band
of ML CAPE values over 2000 j/kg along the NM/TX border southward
towards the Lower Trans Pecos. The environment should support
clusters of storms and some supercells with effective shear of 30-40
kts.  Expect storms to increase in coverage across the Davis
Mountains along with development moving across SE New Mexico and the
Upper Trans Pecos as the cap continues to weaken. Storms will
progress eastward across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
through the evening. Storms will be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.  The hail and wind threat should
decrease with the loss of daytime heating, but the threat for
localized flash flooding will continue due to the presence of high
moisture as PWAT values are between 1 and 2 inches.

Expect the wet pattern to continue over the next few days with the
weak upper level trough continuing its slow progression east. Main
forcing for activity will be the lee surface low and convergent
upslope flow across the Trans Pecos.  The high moisture will
continue and the potential for localized flash flooding caused by
heavy rainfall will be possible tomorrow and Monday.

A weak ridge tries to build from the west by mid week, which could
cut precip chances down a little.  Best chances for rain in the
extended will be in the mountains.  Some models suggest temps could
rise back above normal, but have opted to stay near normal for
now.

Arnold

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

27

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 /223 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN OF WEST TEXAS SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOOD OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG BUT THE GREATER THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ074-080-081-140000-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO AND WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF ELEPHANT
MOUNTAIN AT 625 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3026 10371 3021 10357 3011 10370 3000 10342
      2992 10387 3010 10390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 260DEG 18KT 3002 10378

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ028-033-034-TXZ058-059-140015-
LOVING-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
529 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN LOVING...NORTHWESTERN REEVES...
SOUTHEASTERN EDDY AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT/715 PM
CDT/...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 25 MILES EAST OF SALT LAKE AT 529
PM MDT/629 PM CDT/...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING/1000 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING/ FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 10413 3263 10331 3235 10315 3203 10348
      3189 10402 3197 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 215DEG 30KT 3224 10356

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ081-140000-
BIG BEND AREA-
634 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF BOQUILLAS CANYON AT
634 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 2927 10325 2934 10288 2929 10288 2926 10290
      2924 10286 2922 10286 2920 10288 2920 10290
      2918 10292 2919 10293 2917 10295 2918 10299
      2915 10299 2910 10303 2908 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 135DEG 4KT 2919 10297

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW CARLSBAD          32.42N 104.28W
06/13/2015                   EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 POWER POLES DOWN AND ROAD SIGN BLOWN DOWN ALONG US
            HIGHWAY 285.

&&

GREGORY.MURDOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ081-140030-
BIG BEND AREA-
659 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOQUILLAS
CANYON AT 659 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2927 10316 2943 10308 2943 10282 2941 10281
      2937 10284 2936 10284 2935 10288 2929 10288
      2926 10290 2924 10286 2922 10286 2917 10295
      2918 10299 2915 10299 2909 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 292DEG 12KT 2931 10298

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
705 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ080-081-140030-
MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-
705 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL BREWSTER AND EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELEPHANT
MOUNTAIN AT 705 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3008 10348 2994 10311 2976 10312 2979 10391
      3005 10390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 268DEG 13KT 2989 10381