Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 23, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

October 7, 2015Presidio County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this river flood warning at Oct 7, 2015, 8:22 PM CDT for Presidio County, Texas. It was in force for 72 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 7, 2015, 8:22 PM CDT (01:22 UTC)
Expired: Oct 10, 2015, 8:03 PM CDT
In force: 72 hr
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Presidio County, TX

The river

Written for the forecast point Rio Grande at Candelaria Crossing (CDET2).

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

301 
WGUS44 KMAF 080122
FLWMAF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
822 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...The National Weather Service in Midland has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
Runoff from local heavy rainfall will result in rises in the river stage on the
Rio Grande 3 miles north of Candelaria. The river is forecast to reach a crest
over 9 feet by tomorrow morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

TXC377-081722-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FL.W.0023.151008T0122Z-151009T1800Z/
/CDET2.1.ER.151007T1937Z.151008T1200Z.151009T0600Z.NO/
822 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

The National Weather Service in  has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until Friday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.8 feet (2.7 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.1 feet (2.8 
  meters) by tomorrow morning.  The river will fall below flood stage
  early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 8.5 feet (2.6 meters), the river reaches minor flood 
  stage, possibly resulting in flooding of FM 170 in low areas.  
  Homes in Candelaria are not expected to be affected.  Farmers and 
  ranchers need to remain alert to the weather and river conditions 
  as livestock and machinery may need to be moved to higher ground.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.1 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Aug 3 2014.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5    8.8   Wed  7 PM   8.3   8.0   7.7   7.3

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    2.7   Wed  7 PM   2.5   2.4   2.3   2.2

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

9 follow-up statements

330 
WGUS84 KMAF 080258
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
958 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
Sharp crest of 10 to 12 feet expected overnight due to rainfall near the
gauge in the past hour. The river will remain elevated due to widespread
rainfall upstream in the past 48 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

TXC377-081858-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-151010T1200Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151008T0600Z.151010T0000Z.NO/
958 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until Saturday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9PM Wednesday the stage was 9.4 feet (2.9 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.3 feet (3.4 
  meters) by after midnight tomorrow.  The river will fall below 
  flood stage Friday evening.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet (3.7 meters), the river continues to flood low
  areas oF FM 170.  The river will likely begin to affect homes on 
  the west side of the roadway.  Livestock and machinery along the 
  river will be impacted.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Wed   Wed   Wed   Thu
                                                7AM   1PM   7PM   1AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5    9.4   Wed  9 PM   9.6   9.3   8.9   8.7

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Wed   Wed   Wed   Thu
                                                7AM   1PM   7PM   1AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    2.9   Wed  9 PM   2.9   2.8   2.7   2.7

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

740 
WGUS44 KMAF 080653
FLWMAF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the 
following rivers in Texas...
  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
.Runoff from local heavy rainfall will result in rises in the river stage on the
Rio Grande 3 miles north of Candelaria. The river is forecast to reach a crest
over 13 feet this morning. This rise may result in major flooding along the river 
including flooding of FM 170 and some homes in Candelaria. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued

&&

TXC377-082253-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-151012T1200Z/
/CDET2.3.ER.151007T1937Z.151008T1200Z.151012T0000Z.NR/
153 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...Forecast flooding increased from moderate to major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until Monday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1AM Thursday the stage was 10.8 feet (3.3 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.2 feet (4.0 
  meters) by this morning.  The river will fall below flood stage 
  Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet (4.0 meters), the river reaches major flood 
  stage, and approaches record levels.  Flooding of FM 170 is 
  imminent.  Homes in Candelaria will likely begin flood, especially 
  those on the south side of the road.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.2 feet (4.0 meters) on 
Aug 31 1935.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Thu   Thu   Thu   Fri
                                                7AM   1PM   7PM   1AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5   10.8   Thu  1 AM  13.2   9.6   9.3   9.1

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Thu   Thu   Thu   Fri
                                                7AM   1PM   7PM   1AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    3.3   Thu  1 AM   4.0   2.9   2.8   2.8

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

160 
WGUS84 KMAF 081406
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
906 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
.Thunderstorms moving out of northern Chihuahua continue to bring 
heavy rain to the area. The river will remain elevated due to widespread
rainfall upstream in the past 48 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued this afternoon.

&&

TXC377-090606-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151008T0645Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
906 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until further notice, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8AM Thursday the stage was 10.5 feet (3.2 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 9.4 feet 
  (2.9 meters) by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet (3.0 meters), the river reaches moderate flood
  stage, flooding some sections of FM 170.  Water levels in the flood
  plain may begin to affect homes between the road and the river.  
  The roadway to the foot bridge may be inundated.  Livestock and 
  machinery may need to be moved as time and conditions permit.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5   10.5   Thu  8 AM   9.4   9.1   9.0   9.0

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    3.2   Thu  8 AM   2.9   2.8   2.7   2.7

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

723 
WGUS84 KMAF 081425
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
925 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
..The Rio Grande River at Candelaria is still above flood stage this
morning due to runoff from heavy rainfall yesterday and last night.
At 815 am CDT, the stage was 10.47 feet.  Flood Stage is 8.5 feet.
The Rio Grande River at Candelaria is expected to gradually fall,
but stay above flood stage into Friday, if not Saturday. Any 
additional heavy rainfall will change this forecast.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued

&&

TXC377-090625-
/O.CON.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151008T0645Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
925 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until further notice, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 10.3 feet (3.1 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 9.4 feet 
  (2.9 meters) by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet (3.0 meters), the river reaches moderate flood
  stage, flooding some sections of FM 170.  Water levels in the flood
  plain may begin to affect homes between the road and the river.  
  The roadway to the foot bridge may be inundated.  Livestock and 
  machinery may need to be moved as time and conditions permit.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Thu   Thu   Fri   Fri
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5   10.3   Thu  9 AM  10.1   9.9   9.6   9.4

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Thu   Thu   Fri   Fri
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    3.1   Thu  9 AM   3.1   3.0   2.9   2.9

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

256 
WGUS84 KMAF 090143
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
843 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New 
Mexico...

  Dark Canyon Draw at Dark Canyon Carlsbad affecting Eddy County
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Rio Grande above Presidio 6WNW affecting Presidio County
  Rio Grande at Castolon affecting Brewster County
  Rio Grande at Johnson Ranch affecting Brewster County
  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  Rio Grande at Boquillas-Rio Grande Village affecting Brewster 
  County
  
Runoff from locally heavy rainfall had resulted in rises of the river
stages on the Rio Grande above Presidio 6WNW, at Castolon, at Johnson
Ranch, at Candelaria and at Boquillas-Rio Grande Village.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued tomorrow.

&&

TXC377-091743-
/O.CON.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151008T0645Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
843 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until further notice, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8PM Thursday the stage was 10.3 feet (3.1 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.7 feet (3.3 
  meters) by after midnight tomorrow then begin falling.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet (3.0 meters), the river reaches moderate flood
  stage, flooding some sections of FM 170.  Water levels in the flood
  plain may begin to affect homes between the road and the river.  
  The roadway to the foot bridge may be inundated.  Livestock and 
  machinery may need to be moved as time and conditions permit.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5   10.3   Thu  8 PM   9.8   9.6   9.5   9.3

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    3.1   Thu  8 PM   3.0   2.9   2.9   2.8

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

TXC377-091743-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0025.151009T0600Z-151010T0600Z/
/PIOT2.1.ER.151009T0600Z.151009T1200Z.151009T1800Z.NO/
843 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  the Rio Grande above Presidio 6WNW.
* from late tonight to late Friday night, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  7PM Thursday the stage was 7.8 feet (2.4 meters).
* flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet (2.7 meters).
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) by tomorrow morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet (2.7 meters), the river reaches minor flood 
  stage, and flooding between the levees occurs.  No damage to 
  structures is expected.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.5 feet (3.2 meters) on 
Sep 25 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Presidio 6WNW   6.0  9.0    7.8   Thu  7 PM   8.4   7.8   7.3   7.1

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Presidio 6WNW   1.8  2.7    2.4   Thu  7 PM   2.6   2.4   2.2   2.2

&&

LAT...LON 2975 10465 2980 10451 2963 10437 2951 10446 2957 10453


$$

TXC043-091742-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0026.151009T0529Z-151010T1824Z/
/CSTT2.1.ER.151009T0529Z.151009T0600Z.151009T0624Z.NO/
843 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rio Grande at Castolon.
* from late tonight to Saturday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8PM Thursday the stage was 11.6 feet (3.5 meters).
* flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet (4.6 meters).
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 15.4 feet (4.7 meters) by after midnight 
  tomorrow.  The river will fall below flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet (4.6 meters), the river reaches minor flood 
  stage, and lowland flooding begins.  The river begins to flood the 
  road between Santa Elena Canyon and Cottonwood Campground in Big 
  Bend National Park.  The river begins to flood the parking lot at 
  Santa Elena Canyon, and cut off the nature trail into the canyon.  
  Campers in Cottonwood Campground need to prepare for possible 
  evacuations.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.1 feet (4.6 meters) on 
Sep 7 2014.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Castolon       13.0 15.0   11.6   Thu  8 PM   8.6   6.7   6.3   6.0

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Castolon        4.0  4.6    3.5   Thu  8 PM   2.6   2.0   1.9   1.8

&&

LAT...LON 2909 10366 2923 10358 2920 10349 2912 10340 2900 10349


$$

TXC043-091742-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0027.151009T0556Z-151009T1820Z/
/TELT2.1.ER.151009T0556Z.151009T0600Z.151009T0620Z.NO/
843 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Rio Grande at Johnson Ranch.
* from late tonight to Friday afternoon, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8PM Thursday the stage was 7.5 feet (2.3 meters).
* flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet (4.6 meters).
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and 
  continue to rise to near 15.1 feet (4.6 meters) by after midnight 
  tomorrow.  The river will fall below flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet (4.6 meters), flood stage is reached.  
  Moderate lowland flooding begins.  Roads that lead to Cottonwood 
  Campground and River Road may flood.  Stages are practically 
  synonymous with the gage at Cottonwood Campground at Castolon 
  (CSTT2), and therefore represent the reach from Santa Elena Canyon 
  through Cottonwood Campground, where damage may occur.  Cattle also
  graze in the lowlands, and may be threatened.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.1 feet (4.6 meters) on 
Jul 22 2013.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Johnson Ranch  12.0 15.0    7.5   Thu  8 PM   9.0   7.5   7.1   6.9

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Johnson Ranch   3.7  4.6    2.3   Thu  8 PM   2.7   2.3   2.2   2.1

&&

LAT...LON 2900 10349 2912 10340 2915 10312 2896 10305 2895 10338


$$

TXC043-091742-
/O.CON.KMAF.FL.W.0028.151009T1047Z-151011T0734Z/
/BOQT2.2.ER.151009T1047Z.151009T1800Z.151009T1934Z.NO/
843 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rio Grande at Boquillas-Rio Grande Village.
* from late tonight to late Saturday night, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8PM Thursday the stage was 7.9 feet (2.4 meters).
* flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet (4.0 meters).
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to
  rise to near 15.1 feet (4.6 meters) by tomorrow early afternoon.  
  The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet (4.6 meters), the river reaches moderate flood
  stage.  Water pumps submerge.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.0 feet (4.0 meters) on 
Sep 20 2013.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Boquillas-Rio  12.0 13.0    7.9   Thu  8 PM   5.8   6.1   5.7   5.6

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Boquillas-Rio   3.7  4.0    2.4   Thu  8 PM   1.8   1.9   1.7   1.7

&&

LAT...LON 2896 10305 2915 10312 2940 10294 2931 10279 2912 10292


$$

NMC015-090213-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-151009T0810Z/
/DACN5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
743 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dark Canyon Draw at Dark Canyon Carlsbad.
* At  7PM Thursday the stage was 5.9 feet (1.8 meters).
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet (4.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 8.3 feet (feet 
  meters).  The river will fall to 4.3 feet (1.3 meters) by .

This crest compares to a previous crest of 5.8 feet (1.8 meters) on 
Sep 13 1991.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Dark Canyon Ca  9.0 15.0    5.9   Thu  7 PM   4.3   3.8   3.4   3.4

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon
                                                7AM   7AM   7AM   7AM
  Dark Canyon Ca  2.7  4.6    1.8   Thu  7 PM   1.3   1.2   1.0   1.0

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10485 3227 10485 3243 10457 3249 10418 3237 10400


$$

890 
WGUS84 KMAF 091427
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
927 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Rio Grande above Presidio 6WNW affecting Presidio County
  Rio Grande at Castolon affecting Brewster County
  Rio Grande at Johnson Ranch affecting Brewster County
  Rio Grande at Boquillas-Rio Grande Village affecting Brewster 
  County
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
Runoff from locally heavy rainfall had resulted in rises of the river
stages along the Rio Grande.  Candelaria remains in flood and is 
forecast to fall below moderate flood stage this afternoon.  The flow 
has decreased at points downstream with only Boquillas above action
stage and continuing to fall below action stage through the morning hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued

&&

TXC377-100627-
/O.CON.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151009T0515Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
927 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until further notice, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9AM Friday the stage was 10.4 feet (3.2 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 9.7 feet 
  (3.0 meters) by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet (3.0 meters), the river reaches moderate flood
  stage, flooding some sections of FM 170.  Water levels in the flood
  plain may begin to affect homes between the road and the river.  
  The roadway to the foot bridge may be inundated.  Livestock and 
  machinery may need to be moved as time and conditions permit.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5   10.4   Fri  9 AM  10.2  10.0   9.8   9.7

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    3.2   Fri  9 AM   3.1   3.0   3.0   3.0

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

TXC377-091457-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-151010T0600Z/
/PIOT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
927 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande above Presidio 6WNW.
* At  8AM Friday the stage was 7.6 feet (2.3 meters).
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet (2.7 meters).
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 8.4 feet (feet 
  meters).  The river will fall to 6.3 feet (1.9 meters) by .
* Impact...At 7.0 feet (2.1 meters), the flood plain between the 
  levees begins to flood.  No damage is expected.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.5 feet (3.2 meters) on 
Sep 25 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Presidio 6WNW   6.0  9.0    7.6   Fri  8 AM   7.1   6.7   6.5   6.3

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Presidio 6WNW   1.8  2.7    2.3   Fri  8 AM   2.2   2.0   2.0   1.9

&&

LAT...LON 2975 10465 2980 10451 2963 10437 2951 10446 2957 10453


$$

TXC043-091457-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-151010T1824Z/
/CSTT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
927 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande at Castolon.
* At  8AM Friday the stage was 6.1 feet (1.9 meters).
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet (4.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 13.3 feet (feet 
  meters).  The river will fall to 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) by .


&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Castolon       13.0 15.0    6.1   Fri  8 AM   5.6   5.2   5.0   4.9

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Castolon        4.0  4.6    1.9   Fri  8 AM   1.7   1.6   1.5   1.5

&&

LAT...LON 2909 10366 2923 10358 2920 10349 2912 10340 2900 10349


$$

TXC043-091457-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151009T1820Z/
/TELT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
927 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande at Johnson Ranch.
* At  9AM Friday the stage was 8.6 feet (2.6 meters).
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet (4.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 12.2 feet (feet 
  meters).  The river will fall to 7.4 feet (2.3 meters) by .

This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.4 feet (3.8 meters) on 
Aug 16 2010.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Johnson Ranch  12.0 15.0    8.6   Fri  9 AM   8.6   8.1   7.7   7.4

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Johnson Ranch   3.7  4.6    2.6   Fri  9 AM   2.6   2.5   2.3   2.3

&&

LAT...LON 2900 10349 2912 10340 2915 10312 2896 10305 2895 10338


$$

TXC043-091457-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151011T0734Z/
/BOQT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
927 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande at Boquillas-Rio Grande Village.
* At  9AM Friday the stage was 10.7 feet (3.3 meters).
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet (4.0 meters).
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 11.1 feet (feet 
  meters).  The river will fall to 6.1 feet (1.9 meters) by .
* Impact...At 12.0 feet (3.7 meters), the river reaches bankfull, and 
  no damage is expected.  Preparations may be necessary to remove 
  water pumps.  The park should be notified at this time if 
  additional rises are expected so they will have time to remove the 
  pumps.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.0 feet (4.0 meters) on 
Sep 20 2013.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Boquillas-Rio  12.0 13.0   10.7   Fri  9 AM  10.0   7.5   6.5   6.1

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Boquillas-Rio   3.7  4.0    3.3   Fri  9 AM   3.0   2.3   2.0   1.9

&&

LAT...LON 2896 10305 2915 10312 2940 10294 2931 10279 2912 10292


$$

137 
WGUS84 KMAF 100134
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
834 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
Runoff from locally heavy rainfall had resulted in rises of the river
stages along the Rio Grande.  Candelaria remains in flood and is 
forecast to continue to slowly fall over the next several days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

TXC377-101734-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-151014T1200Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151009T0515Z.151014T0000Z.NO/
834 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8PM Friday the stage was 9.6 feet (2.9 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet (3.0 meters), the river reaches moderate flood
  stage, flooding some sections of FM 170.  Water levels in the flood
  plain may begin to affect homes between the road and the river.  
  The roadway to the foot bridge may be inundated.  Livestock and 
  machinery may need to be moved as time and conditions permit.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sat   Sat   Sat   Sat
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5    9.6   Fri  8 PM   9.4   9.3   9.2   9.1

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sat   Sat   Sat   Sat
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    2.9   Fri  8 PM   2.9   2.8   2.8   2.8

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

211 
WGUS84 KMAF 101428
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
928 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
The Rio Grande at Candelaria remains in flood stage through this evening.
Despite slow falls along the river elevated flow is still expected until 
later in the week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

The next statement will be issued

&&

TXC377-110628-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-151011T1200Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151009T0515Z.151011T0000Z.NO/
928 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* until Sunday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9AM Saturday the stage was 8.7 feet (2.7 meters).
* flooding is occurring and  flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 8.5 feet (2.6 meters), the river reaches minor flood 
  stage, possibly resulting in flooding of FM 170 in low areas.  
  Homes in Candelaria are not expected to be affected.  Farmers and 
  ranchers need to remain alert to the weather and river conditions 
  as livestock and machinery may need to be moved to higher ground.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sat   Sat   Sun   Sun
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5    8.7   Sat  9 AM   8.6   8.5   8.3   8.2

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sat   Sat   Sun   Sun
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    2.7   Sat  9 AM   2.6   2.6   2.5   2.5

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

221 
WGUS84 KMAF 110103
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
803 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  
The Rio Grande at Candelaria has fallen below flood stage and will 
continue to fall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists are urged to heed flood warnings, and exercise caution if 
traveling through this area.  Vehicle-related fatalities are the 
number one source of flood fatalities in West Texas and New Mexico.
If you encounter a flooded stretch of roadway, do not attempt to  
cross it.  You and your vehicle could be swept downstream in rushing 
floodwaters.  Turn around, don't drown!  

River levels are high.  Ranchers and farmers should move livestock 
and machinery out of flood-prone areas if time permits.

Keep in mind that any additional rainfall across the area could
significantly change the present forecast stage.

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

&&

TXC377-110133-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-151011T1200Z/
/CDET2.2.ER.151007T1937Z.151009T0515Z.151010T2007Z.NO/
803 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* At  7PM Saturday the stage was 8.3 feet (2.5 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 15:07 PM Saturday.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 7.7 feet (2.3 meters)
  by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 8.5 feet (2.6 meters), the river reaches minor flood 
  stage, possibly resulting in flooding of FM 170 in low areas.  
  Homes in Candelaria are not expected to be affected.  Farmers and 
  ranchers need to remain alert to the weather and river conditions 
  as livestock and machinery may need to be moved to higher ground.

This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.2 feet (2.8 meters) on 
Oct 7 2015.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sun   Sun   Sun   Sun
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5    8.3   Sat  7 PM   8.1   7.8   7.7   7.7

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Sun   Sun   Sun   Sun
                                                1AM   7AM   1PM   7PM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    2.5   Sat  7 PM   2.5   2.4   2.3   2.3

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 7, 6:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 7, 6:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong to severe TS is moving into SE NM and W TX this evening but
should be diminishing in strength shortly with the loss of daytime
heating. More showers and storms will develop through the
remainder of the TAF period with variable gusty winds and heavy
rain the main threat. MVFR/IFR conditions expected a few hours
either side of 12Z as well as in any of the heavier showers/storms.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for the forecast package will continue to be the
potential for flooding/flash flooding across many areas over the
next couple of days... A Flash Flood remains for the western half of
the CWA Wednesday.

An upper low, currently located over southeast AZ, will continue its
slow progression E/SE today, overspreading large scale forcing for
ascent across the region through at least Thursday. Yesterday, a few
thunderstorms affected western zones as well as the Davis Mountain
regions during the afternoon/evening hours. Some of the storms were
heavy rain producers and as a result, the Rio Grande River at
Candelaria briefly rose above flood stage late last night. This may
be the beginning of what is to come over the next few days.

Will begin to see an uptick in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight, particularly across SE NM, Upper Trans Pecos
and south through the Marfa Plateau and Rio Grande Valley. Similar
to yesterday, some storms could be severe through the evening hours
generally across the Van Horn and the Hwy 54 corridor/Rio Grande
Valley regions. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for these
areas through 08/02Z. Regardless, heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main threat with 1-3" of rainfall possible across these areas
through Thursday morning. Flooding/flash flooding is expected
especially across urban areas and where soils are already saturated.
The axis of heaviest rain looks to shift south and east toward the
southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions
Thursday into Thursday night but depending on the exact placement of
the upper low, could see main precip area shift even farther south
for this time period. For now, will continue likely PoPs across
these areas. Potential impacts today through Friday may include;
flooded urban roadways and rural low water crossings, flooding of
low flowing arroyos/creeks and potentially rivers, including those
in SE NM. Reduced visibility in short distances may impact airports
and auto travel.

Friday, the upper low begins to retrograde west and rain chances
will shift south and decrease throughout the day. Clearing skies and
Drier weather expected this weekend and into the beginning of next
work week with the return of upper ridging. Below normal high
temperatures expected through Saturday due to rain/cloud cover then
temperatures are expected to rebound to above normal readings next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

10

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 7, 2:23 PM CDT, 5 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-081930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
223 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 /123 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CULBERSON...JEFF
DAVIS...AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM CDT...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTH TO THE DAVIS AND APACHE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...  ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ALL LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THURSDAY...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND WEST OF A CARLSBAD TO ALPINE LINE. ALSO...DECISION MAKERS
SHOULD BEGIN STRATEGIC PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OF
URBAN AND RURAL ROADS...ARROYOS...AND OTHER LARGER TRIBUTARIES.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 7, 6:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             15 W CARLSBAD           32.40N 104.49W
10/07/2015  M1.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DARK CANYON ROAD, NICKEL AND A FEW GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
            WITH 1.05 INCHES RAIN ABOUT 30 MINUTES.

&&

CMR

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 6:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

TXZ081-080030-
BIG BEND AREA TX-
637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 637 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CASTOLON...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF CHISOS BASIN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANTHER JUNCTION...CHISOS BASIN...CASTOLON AND BIG BEND NATIONAL
PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2899 10327 2898 10328 2903 10331 2902 10334
      2904 10333 2902 10336 2904 10343 2916 10355
      2918 10368 2950 10280 2945 10283 2940 10281
      2936 10285 2935 10288 2926 10291 2922 10287
      2917 10300 2910 10303 2906 10310 2898 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 256DEG 27KT 2901 10331

29

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 7:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
717 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

TXZ061-067-068-080100-
ECTOR TX-WARD TX-CRANE TX-
717 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER...SOUTHERN
ECTOR...NORTHEASTERN WARD...NORTHWESTERN UPTON AND CRANE COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 716 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TUBBS CORNER...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONAHANS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONAHANS...WEST ODESSA...MONAHANS SANDHILLS STATE PARK...PENWELL...
PLEASANT FARMS...MONAHANS SAND HILLS STATE PARK...ROY HURD MEMORIAL
AIRPORT...TUBBS CORNER AND THORNTONVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 77 AND 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3165 10232 3146 10232 3133 10267 3156 10297
      3165 10285 3165 10280 3169 10280 3189 10253
      3166 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 233DEG 21KT 3145 10267

29

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 7:48 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
748 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

TXZ057-080115-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR TX-
748 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 747 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
VAN HORN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAN HORN...CULBERSON COUNTY AIRPORT AND PLATEAU.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 136 AND 162.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3121 10491 3131 10456 3098 10443 3083 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 239DEG 33KT 3103 10486

AHASIC

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 7:50 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
750 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

TXZ074-080-081-080130-
MARFA PLATEAU TX-BIG BEND AREA TX-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
750 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER...
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO...EASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTHWESTERN REEVES
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 750 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MARFA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALPINE...MARFA...FORT DAVIS...BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT CAMP...CAMP MITRE
PEAK...DAVIS MOUNTAINS STATE PARK...BLOYS CAMP...ALPINE-CASPARIS
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...INDIAN LODGE STATE PARK...PAISANO PASS...MARFA
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...HOVEY...MCDONALD OBSERVATORY...BLACK MOUNTAIN...
FORT DAVIS NATIONAL HISTORICAL SITE AND STAR MOUNTAIN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 190 AND 194.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3110 10401 3099 10387 3093 10383 3057 10331
      2973 10378 3021 10426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 198DEG 25KT 3028 10403

29

Special weather statement, Oct 7, 7:58 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
758 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

TXZ061-062-068-069-080145-
ECTOR TX-CRANE TX-UPTON TX-MIDLAND TX-
758 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ECTOR...NORTHWESTERN
UPTON...NORTHEASTERN CRANE AND SOUTHWESTERN MIDLAND COUNTIES UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

AT 758 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF PLEASANT FARMS...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF CRANE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLEASANT FARMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3160 10189 3144 10243 3165 10260 3191 10212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 243DEG 20KT 3156 10237

29

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 7, 7:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Crane, Ector	43 min
Oct 7, 7:22 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Culberson	6 hr
Oct 7, 7:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Culberson	27 min
Oct 7, 7:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Jeff Davis	40 min
Oct 7, 7:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Midland	47 min
Oct 7, 8:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	38 min
Oct 7, 8:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Jeff Davis, Reeves	52 min
Oct 7, 9:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	44 min
Oct 7, 9:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Loving, Reeves	39 min
Oct 7, 9:37 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Culberson, Loving, Reeves	3 hr
Oct 7, 10:25 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Loving, Reeves, Ward	6 hr
Oct 7, 10:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF		38 min
Oct 7, 11:31 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Ward, Winkler	6 hr
Oct 7, 11:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Jeff Davis	43 min
Oct 8, 12:18 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Andrews, Ector, Gaines	3 hr
Oct 8, 1:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster, Jeff Davis	41 min
Oct 8, 2:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF		67 min
Oct 8, 2:39 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Andrews, Dawson, Gaines, Martin	3 hr
Oct 8, 2:41 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Crane, Ector, Midland	3 hr
Oct 8, 4:19 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Ward, Winkler	4 hr
Oct 8, 5:03 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Borden, Dawson, Glasscock, Howard, Martin, Midland and 2 more	3 hr
Oct 8, 5:29 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Culberson, Jeff Davis, Presidio, Reeves	3 hr
Oct 8, 5:50 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Andrews, Gaines, Loving, Ward, Winkler	3 hr
Oct 8, 6:24 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Andrews, Crane, Ector, Ward, Winkler	3 hr
Oct 8, 6:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Pecos	3 hr
Oct 8, 6:41 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Jeff Davis, Presidio	4 hr
Oct 8, 7:49 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Crane	26 min
Oct 8, 8:16 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Brewster	3 hr
Oct 8, 8:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Crane	39 min
Oct 8, 8:42 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos	3 hr
Oct 8, 9:20 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Jeff Davis, Pecos, Reeves	4 hr
Oct 8, 10:43 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Culberson, Jeff Davis, Presidio	6 hr
Oct 8, 10:50 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Crane, Ector, Midland, Upton	3 hr
Oct 8, 11:08 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Crane, Pecos, Upton, Ward	112 min
Oct 8, 11:33 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Reagan, Upton	3 hr
Oct 8, 11:59 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Ector, Midland	4 hr
Oct 8, 12:10 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Upton	4 hr
Oct 8, 12:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Midland	64 min
Oct 8, 12:58 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Martin	3 hr
Oct 8, 1:23 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Glasscock	3 hr
Oct 8, 2:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Terrell	52 min
Oct 8, 3:18 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Reagan	3 hr
Oct 8, 3:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Borden, Howard, Mitchell, Scurry	4 hr
Oct 8, 4:36 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Brewster, Pecos, Terrell	3 hr
Oct 8, 4:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	39 min
Oct 8, 4:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	MAF	Presidio	23 hr
Oct 8, 5:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF		39 min
Oct 8, 5:22 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Brewster, Presidio	3 hr
Oct 8, 6:19 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	MAF	Brewster	43 hr
Oct 8, 6:19 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	MAF	Brewster	19 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.