Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

700 
WGUS74 KMAF 081336
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
836 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

TXC243-377-081545-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-151008T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PRESIDIO TX-JEFF DAVIS TX-
836 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL PRESIDIO AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES...

AT 828 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  FLASH FLOODING HAS OCCURRED 
AND IS LIKELY STILL OCCURRING.

REPORTS FROM THE LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS IN FORT DAVIS HAVE 
REPORTED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA THAT CAUSED ROCK 
SLIDES...FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSING...AND ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS 
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE COUNTY INCLUDING HIGHWAY 118 BETWEEN KENT AND 
THE STATE PARK...AND HIGHWAY 166. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE LOW WATER AT 
AND AROUND...
 
ALAMITO CREEK SOUTH FORK CROSSING...RR 1837 CROSSING BARILLOS CREEK
TRIBUTARY...SH 118 CROSSING CHERRY CREEK TRIB...GONZALEZ DR
CROSSING CHIHUAHUA CREEK...CEMETERY RD CROSSING CHIHUAHUA CREEK...
CEMETERY RD CROSSING CHIHUAHUA CREEK TRIB...PINTO CANYON RD CROSSING
RIO GRANDE...AND RR 1832 CROSSING TOYAH CREEK TRIB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 10438 3109 10411 3066 10347 3042 10381
      3002 10382 2964 10424 2975 10453 2994 10465
      3019 10470

$$

49

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
329 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low over Srn AZ continuing to bring potential of heavy rain
to the area.  This low is expected to slowly move southward into
Mexico today and then pass off into the Pacific.  Eventually models
take this low in a circle and bring it back to Baja by next weekend
but will have to see how things develop.

Currently a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for SE NM and most
of W TX.  Have extended the watch out to 12z Friday.  As of 08z have
a large area of showers and thunderstorms on radar over the Western
Permian Basin... SE NM... the Trans Pecos... down into the Marfa
Plateau.  Have had a number of Flash Flood Warnings and advisories
overnight for heavy rain but have not heard much reports.  This
should change as the morning comes.

Even as the low moves south... showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop east of the low as it pulls moisture around.
Model qpf develops significant amounts of precip today across the
Permian Basin southward to the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos.
Diffluent flow aloft and good PW values may result in additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches or more.  Will keep high pops for
the region today... tonight... and Friday.  Pops begin to decrease
Friday night with a dry forecast from Saturday night on.

Abundant cloud cover should keep temps below normal today and
tomorrow.  A weak boundary sags down into the area early today with
the wind becoming northerly before returning to the east during the
afternoon.  Temps begin to warm over the weekend into next week.

Heavy rain the last couple of days along the Rio Grande has resulted
in some river flooding near Candelaria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  78  63  79  60  /  60  60  60  20
CARLSBAD NM                    70  57  71  57  /  70  60  60  30
DRYDEN TX                      79  65  80  66  /  80  80  60  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               77  61  78  60  /  80  80  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  52  68  56  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                       71  57  73  56  /  70  60  60  20
MARFA TX                       72  54  71  52  /  80  70  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        77  62  78  59  /  70  70  60  20
ODESSA TX                      74  62  77  59  /  70  70  60  20
WINK TX                        75  63  78  61  /  80  70  60  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

84/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
331 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-090845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
331 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 /231 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE BIG BEND AREA...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER...WHERE LOCATIONS
COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DECISION MAKERS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLOODING OF URBAN AND RURAL ROADS...ARROYOS...AND OTHER LARGER
TRIBUTARIES.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

TXZ058-074-075-080845-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-PECOS TX-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
238 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BREWSTER...EAST CENTRAL
JEFF DAVIS...SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES AND WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 237 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTHWEST OF HOVEY...OR 23 MILES EAST OF FORT DAVIS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOVEY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 223 AND 237.

LAT...LON 3056 10361 3073 10370 3108 10340 3063 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 245DEG 23KT 3071 10352