Tornado Warning 5, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
751 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.AVIATION...03/00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACRS THE FA THRU THE EVENING
HRS. BREEZY SLY WINDS WL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS
TO DVLP LATER TNGT/FRI MRNG ACRS THE AREA. SCTD CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KHRO AND KBPK AFT 03/06Z WITH IFR CONDS TO
ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...A CDFNT WL MOVE INTO NWRN AR
FRI MRNG AND WL BE OVR SERN AR AT THE END OF THE FCST PD. CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTION TRENDS WITH FROPA LATER FRI STILL NOT THAT GREAT
ATTM...SO CONTD TO MENTION VCTS FOR NOW. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE TORNADO WATCH THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH 2 AM. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING MAINLY IN THE
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WHILE IT WAS MOSTLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BECOME ACTIVE
AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...AND WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WARMING ALOFT/CAPPING
SHOULD KEEP IT QUIET FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...STORMS IN THE NORTH WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFIRE IN THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH/EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. AGAIN...SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE.

SURROUNDING THE FRONT...IT WILL BE WINDY ON FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK THIS WAY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
AGAIN. RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER WILL BE THE STORY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. AFTER FIRST ROUND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT. AS USUAL IN
THE SPRING SETUP...A THIRD ROUND MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
RAINFALL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
946 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
946 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.

THE LATEST DATA IS SHOWING THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AS THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WARMING ALOFT
WILL TEND TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...IT MAY VERY WELL REMAIN QUIET DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL TRIGGER NEW STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE STATE...AND COULD BE SEVERE.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL BRIEFLY ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE RETURNING ON SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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