Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1001 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1001 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DESHA COUNTY THROUGH 1 PM.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS WEAKER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. ONLY AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. AREA RIVER FLOODING DOES CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE LOWER
OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION. THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GO UP WITH A STORM SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH STORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR...AND RIVER FLOODING INCREASED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1053 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROHWER                  33.77N 91.28W
05/27/2015                   DESHA              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 1 IN ROWHER AND HALF A MILE SOUTH OF
            ROWHER. ALSO WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 138 4 MILES WEST OF
            KELSO. CO-OP OBSERVER ALSO RECORDED 2.23 INCHES OF RAIN
            BETWEEN 8 AM AND 1040AM.

&&

CDALTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
341 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ARZ007-272110-
SHARP AR-
341 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHARP COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF ASH FLAT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SITKA...              POUGHKEEPSIE...       NELSONVILLE...
  CENTER...             CALAMINE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3624 9133 3623 9133 3622 9134 3606 9134
      3596 9135 3610 9168 3615 9168 3622 9163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 242DEG 11KT 3611 9159

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
403 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ARZ012-013-272135-
NEWTON AR-SEARCY AR-
403 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SEARCY AND EASTERN NEWTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EULA...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JASPER...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARSENA...            IMO...                EULA...
  BOHANNON...           SNOWBALL...
  RICHLAND CREEK CAMPGROUND...                BASS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3591 9269 3576 9274 3580 9305 3594 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 277DEG 6KT 3584 9295

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
418 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ARZ012-272150-
NEWTON AR-
418 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF
JASPER TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOST VALLEY SP...     JASPER...
  UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...            PRUITT...
  PIERCETOWN...         CARVER...             YARDELLE...
  VENDOR...             PONCA...              PARTHENON...
  MT SHERMAN...         LOW GAP...            HASTY...
  BOXLEY...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3595 9295 3590 9351 3592 9351 3595 9350
      3598 9346 3604 9345 3608 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 270DEG 5KT 3601 9314 3597 9352

62