Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN AT KHOT AND
KADF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLLQ. CONVECTION WILL
PICK UP A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAFS DUE TO
HEATING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY USED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1001 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1001 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DESHA COUNTY THROUGH 1 PM.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS WEAKER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. ONLY AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. AREA RIVER FLOODING DOES CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE LOWER
OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION. THEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GO UP WITH A STORM SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH STORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR...AND RIVER FLOODING INCREASED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1053 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROHWER                  33.77N 91.28W
05/27/2015                   DESHA              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 1 IN ROWHER AND HALF A MILE SOUTH OF
            ROWHER. ALSO WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 138 4 MILES WEST OF
            KELSO. CO-OP OBSERVER ALSO RECORDED 2.23 INCHES OF RAIN
            BETWEEN 8 AM AND 1040AM.

&&

CDALTON