Flash Flood Warning 137, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION
STARTING TO WRAP UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30
MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A VARIETY OF
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PER 20Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...NOW LOCATED FROM
JUST NORTH OF TEXARKANA...TO NORTH OF PINE BLUFF...IS TEMPORARILY
STALLED. HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR AN EXPECTED
DEVLOPING DRY SLOT....MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
INTENSE WINTER STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOWING A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUING AND AS SUCH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL
BE USED.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BUT WILL STILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AS IT PULLS OUT. FRONT NOT OVERLY STRONG BUT WILL
ACT TO BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR TO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ANOTHER SEPARATE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY GRAZE
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY
MINIMAL POPS ARE JUSTIFIED.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY...THE PATTERN BUCKLES AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER FLOW GOES TO QUASI ZONAL TO
EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ON
THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SANS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  43  54  34 / 100 100  90  10
CAMDEN AR         77  46  52  34 / 100 100  40  10
HARRISON AR       43  37  49  28 / 100 100  90  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  45  50  32 / 100 100  60  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  49  54  34 / 100 100  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  51  56  36 /  70 100  60  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  42  48  30 / 100 100  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  39  51  31 / 100 100  90  10
NEWPORT AR        61  45  59  36 / 100 100  80  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  50  55  35 /  90 100  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  45  51  32 / 100 100  70  10
SEARCY AR         67  48  56  34 / 100 100  80  10
STUTTGART AR      73  54  57  36 /  90 100  70  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
430 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ON GROUND
THAT IS ALREADY SATURATED AND WITH NO WHERE FOR THE WATER TO RUN OFF
TO...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN STILL LOOK TO BE OVER THE OUACHITA AND OZARK MOUNTAIN REGIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...BRINGING ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING CONCERN INTO THE
COMING WEEK.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MANY PEOPLE TRAVELING ACROSS
ARKANSAS WHO ARE NOT FAMILIAR WITH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE BLUE BALL          34.97N 93.68W
12/27/2015                   YELL               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE OF 2 INDIVIDUALS NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAY 80 AND FOREST ROAD 18.

1125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MENA                    34.58N 94.24W
12/27/2015                   POLK               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A PERSON WAS RESCUED FROM A VEHICLE STRANDED IN HIGH
            WATER AT RED BIRD LANE AND COUNTY ROAD 95.

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COVE                    34.44N 94.41W
12/27/2015                   POLK               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            NUMEROUS ROADS AND DRIVEWAYS UNDER SEVERAL FEET OF
            WATER...MAKING THEM IMPASSABLE.

0208 PM     FLOOD            ACORN                   34.64N 94.20W
12/27/2015                   POLK               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WATER COVERING ROADS IN ACORN, AR.

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEARDEN                 33.73N 92.62W
12/27/2015                   OUACHITA           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWELINES DOWN IN THE BEARDEN AREA.
            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED WIND
            DAMAGE AND SEVERAL OTHERS HAD TREES FALL ON THEM.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W HAMPTON             33.54N 92.50W
12/27/2015                   CALHOUN            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGERS REPORTED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSE
            AROUND LITTLE BAY ROAD.

0410 PM     TORNADO          5 W HAMPTON             33.54N 92.55W
12/27/2015                   CALHOUN            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CALHOUN SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS TORNADO ON GROUND WEST OF
            HAMPTON.

0423 PM     FLOOD            WALDRON                 34.90N 94.09W
12/27/2015                   SCOTT              AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS ROADS AND STATE HIGHWAYS FLOODED AND CLOSED IN
            SCOTT COUNTY.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILMAR                  33.63N 91.93W
12/27/2015                   DREW               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS A HOUSE WITH ROOF DAMAGE IN
            THE AREA.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HERMITAGE               33.45N 92.17W
12/27/2015                   BRADLEY            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS DAMAGE TO HERMITAGE SCHOOL.
            SEVERAL ROADS IN THE AREA CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND
            POWER LINES.

0527 PM     FLOOD            CLARKSVILLE             35.46N 93.47W
12/27/2015                   JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS COUNTY ROADS 310...4100...
            AND 3151 ARE UNDER WATER AND CLOSED.

0549 PM     FLOOD            WALDRON                 34.90N 94.09W
12/27/2015                   SCOTT              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT ALMOST ALL COUNTY ROADS
            IN SCOTT COUNTY ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. THIS INCLUDES
            HIGHWAY 71 AT MANSFIELD...HIGHWAY 80 WEST...AND HIGHWAY
            28 EAST.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILMAR                  33.63N 91.93W
12/27/2015                   DREW               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS HOUSE WITH ROOF DAMAGE IN
            THE AREA.

0730 PM     FLOOD            YELLVILLE               36.23N 92.69W
12/27/2015                   MARION             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN YELLVILLE AND FLIPPIN
            AREA DUE TO FLOODING.

0800 PM     FLOOD            DANVILLE                35.05N 93.39W
12/27/2015                   YELL               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING IN YELL COUNTY.

0829 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNTAIN VIEW           35.87N 92.11W
12/27/2015                   STONE              AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
            CLOSED.

1005 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N 93.14W
12/27/2015                   POPE               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS ARE UNDER WATER.

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KIRBY                   34.25N 93.63W
12/27/2015                   PIKE               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 70 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MURFREESBORO            34.06N 93.69W
12/27/2015                   PIKE               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 379 IN MURFREESBORO IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

1043 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SW LESLIE             35.76N 92.64W
12/27/2015                   SEARCY             AR   PUBLIC

            FLOODING OF COUNTY ROADS OFF HWY 254 HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

1108 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N CADDO GAP           34.41N 93.62W
12/27/2015                   MONTGOMERY         AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER WAS APPROACHING THE BOTTOM OF THE HWY 8 BRIDGE OVER
            COLLIER CREEK NEAR THE CADDO HILLS HIGH SCHOOL. SEVERAL
            COUNTY ROADS HAVE WATER OVER THEM.

&&

46