Flash Flood Warning 130, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION
STARTING TO WRAP UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 TO 30
MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A VARIETY OF
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PER 20Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...NOW LOCATED FROM
JUST NORTH OF TEXARKANA...TO NORTH OF PINE BLUFF...IS TEMPORARILY
STALLED. HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR AN EXPECTED
DEVLOPING DRY SLOT....MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
INTENSE WINTER STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOWING A HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUING AND AS SUCH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL
BE USED.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BUT WILL STILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AS IT PULLS OUT. FRONT NOT OVERLY STRONG BUT WILL
ACT TO BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR TO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ANOTHER SEPARATE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY GRAZE
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY
MINIMAL POPS ARE JUSTIFIED.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY...THE PATTERN BUCKLES AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. UPPER FLOW GOES TO QUASI ZONAL TO
EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ON
THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SANS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  43  54  34 / 100 100  90  10
CAMDEN AR         77  46  52  34 / 100 100  40  10
HARRISON AR       43  37  49  28 / 100 100  90  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  45  50  32 / 100 100  60  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  49  54  34 / 100 100  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  51  56  36 /  70 100  60  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  42  48  30 / 100 100  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  39  51  31 / 100 100  90  10
NEWPORT AR        61  45  59  36 / 100 100  80  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  50  55  35 /  90 100  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  45  51  32 / 100 100  70  10
SEARCY AR         67  48  56  34 / 100 100  80  10
STUTTGART AR      73  54  57  36 /  90 100  70  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
430 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ON GROUND
THAT IS ALREADY SATURATED AND WITH NO WHERE FOR THE WATER TO RUN OFF
TO...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN STILL LOOK TO BE OVER THE OUACHITA AND OZARK MOUNTAIN REGIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...BRINGING ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING CONCERN INTO THE
COMING WEEK.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MANY PEOPLE TRAVELING ACROSS
ARKANSAS WHO ARE NOT FAMILIAR WITH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
421 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TORNADO          5 W HAMPTON             33.54N 92.55W
12/27/2015                   CALHOUN            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CALHOUN SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS TORNADO ON GROUND WEST OF
            HAMPTON.

&&

MBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     FLOOD            WALDRON                 34.90N 94.09W
12/27/2015                   SCOTT              AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS ROADS AND STATE HIGHWAYS FLOODED AND CLOSED IN
            SCOTT COUNTY.

&&

MBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
525 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W HAMPTON             33.54N 92.50W
12/27/2015                   CALHOUN            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGERS REPORTED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSE
            AROUND LITTLE BAY ROAD.

&&

MBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
552 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     FLOOD            CLARKSVILLE             35.46N 93.47W
12/27/2015                   JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS COUNTY ROADS 310...4100...
            AND 3151 ARE UNDER WATER AND CLOSED.

&&

MBROWN

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