Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
249 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD WITH
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH
STORMS SURFACE-ROOTED AT THIS TIME...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. A PRIMED ATMOSPHERE...CHARACTERIZED
BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS AND SBCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP AND THRIVE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES. FARTHER
NORTH...ONGOING ACTIVITY ORIGINATING THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. VEERING SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND CONTINUED EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS FARTHER EAST DUE TO REINFORCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
PRODUCE AMPLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO
ANCHOR ON. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF HEATING WHICH CAN OCCUR IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...THESE STORMS
MAY LINGER WITH THE AID OF A DEVELOPING 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A LULL SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING UP
WELL ONTO THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY NEARER THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD GENERATE FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...BUT AT LEAST A COUPLE THOUSAND
J/KG OF CAPE COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS...COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET...WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICE
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE DUE TO THE TIME
OF DAY AND SUBSEQUENT STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE PAST DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW. MAY STILL HAVE A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PROGRESSING TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT MAY VERY WELL SEE A LARGER SCALE COMPLEX/LINE
DEVELOP GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING CAUSING INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO
CONGEAL. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE...WITH THIS THREAT AREA LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY IN TONIGHT/SATURDAYS ACTIVITY STILL EXISTS DEPENDENT ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ALL SIGNS CONTINUE
TO POINT AT THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A COMPLEX OF T-STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER SW FLOW AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES NE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/PACIFIC-TYPE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS SATURDAY LATE SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. TRAILING LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH.
THIS COULD GIN UP A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE
INTO THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE SEASONABLE COOL
AND DRY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.

BY WED...UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SWERLY AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST. WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TO KICK EAST ACROSS NM AND WTX
SOMETIME WED INTO THU WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURNING TO WEST TEXAS AND
THE DRYLINE BACKING UP TO THE NM HIGHLANDS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KICK
OFF OUR NEXT PERIOD OF T-STORM CHANCES WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY NEXT SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  44  74 /  50  20   0  10
TULIA         56  77  47  75 /  50  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     56  78  49  75 /  50  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     57  78  49  77 /  50  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       59  80  52  78 /  50  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   54  77  50  78 /  50  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    58  80  52  78 /  50  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     64  84  56  80 /  50  60  10  10
SPUR          61  84  55  80 /  40  40  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  87  58  82 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/33

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>