Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WITH LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE INTERRUPTED
BY SOME TSRA AT TIMES /BEST CHANCES AT CDS/ AS RICHER MOISTURE
CONTINUES SURGING INTO THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
HEADWAY TOWARD LBB AND PVW BY MIDDAY COMPLETE WITH VFR SKIES...
BUT HOW MANY STORMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LEAVE COOL NE WINDS
IN THEIR WAKE AND ULTIMATELY DISRUPT THIS DRYLINE REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

IFR CIGS MAY RETURN AT LBB AND PVW TONIGHT AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS
WEST AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM - THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH
SHOULD BRING FAIR CHANCES FOR +TSRA WITH SOME HAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT LBB AND PVW...LIKELY AFTER 12Z AT CDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...TODAY/S SEVERE TSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE
HEAVILY COMPROMISED BY AN ILL-TIMED UA DISTURBANCE POISED TO REACH
THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z SHOWED A
BONAFIDE JET STREAK SLICING NEWD ACROSS SRN NM AND NRN CHIHUAHUA.
IN TANDEM WITH THIS JET CORE LIES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/ENHANCED CYCLONIC CURVATURE. WHEN COMBINED WITH STOUT
MOISTURE ADVECTION /INCLUDING SOME DENSE FOG/ ALREADY IN PROGRESS
FROM E-W ACROSS THE AREA...THE STAGE APPEARS PRIMED FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORNING STORMS SPREADING SW-NE. ALL MODELS CONVECT TO
VARYING DEGREES THIS MORNING AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS IN/NEAR OUR NERN
COUNTIES ALONG THE NOSE OF A STOUT THETA-E AXIS. PROVIDED THIS
OCCURS...THEN CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD AGAIN SPREAD S-SW WHILE
SERVING TO KEEP A LID ON HIGH TEMPS AND ANY SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THURSDAY...THE DRYLINE SHOULD AT
LEAST MAKE SOME HEADWAY INTO OUR W-SW COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWING AS IT ENCOUNTERS MESOHIGH COLD POOLS FARTHER EAST.

EVEN SHOULD A LATE-MORNING MCS FAIL TO DEVELOP...BACKGROUND ASCENT
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
IMPULSE...SO DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ALONE DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO
OFFSET THE OVERWHELMING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FOR SEVERE TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS RETAINED A HEIGHTENED /YET CONDITIONAL/ SEVERE
THREAT OFF THE CAPROCK...BUT THIS COMES WITH A MAJOR DISCLAIMER FOR
REASONS ALREADY DISCUSSED ABOVE. OMITTED SEVERE MENTION FOR NOW
GIVEN THAT THE CONS ARE OUTWEIGHING PROS FOR THE TIME BEING. IF THIS
PROVES WRONG...THEN 3500+ J/KG SBCAPE AND 50+ KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

POP-WISE...RAMPED VALUES UP THIS MORNING BEFORE SCALING THESE BACK
THIS AFTERNOON AS TSTORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE MORE READILY EAST AND OUT
OF THE REGION UNDER STRONGER SW FLOW. KEPT WITH THIS DRIER THEME
THIS EVENING...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT AN
AXIS OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW WILL FOSTER SCATTERED-
NUMEROUS TSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...LIKELY TO BE POISED ALONG THE
TX-NM LINE. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED SVR
STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT OMITTED SEVERE
MENTION FOR NOW AS THIS IS STILL 24 HOURS OUT AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD WITH
CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH THE LOW KICKING OUT FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...ANY
STORMS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE DRYLINE MIXES
INTO OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE
IN SPEED AS THE DRYLINE MARCHES EAST AND AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE END OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL RECYCLE SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AND ANY OF THIS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. A COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ENSUES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL
PUSH ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH POSSIBLY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/14/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ021>044-091100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
547 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG...AT TIMES LOCALLY DENSE...WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE
SPREADING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING COULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A DEPARTING
IMPULSE ALOFT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STABLE AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. IF ADDITIONAL
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND THEN SPREADING EAST INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

JORDAN