Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
500 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LATE MAY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP
UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH SYSTEM THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WELL DEFINED
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 250 MB OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO APPEARS
HEADED EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL INITIATE DEEP LIFT SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES AT SOME POINT BY LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS QUITE AT ODDS HOW SCENARIO FOR
TODAY WILL UNFOLD WITH A HIGHLY COMPLEX SCENARIO AT 00 HOURS AS
THE LATEST EVOLVING MCS SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. ALREADY HAVE
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE CAPROCK...AND SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW TO STEER IN FROM THE EAST LATER
IN THE MORNING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE CAPES LATER TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ JOULES PER
KILOGRAM...WITH AT LEAST MODEST SHEAR WHILE STEERING FLOW HAS
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. UNKNOWNS INCLUDE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY
MCS OUTFLOWS...POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
WESTERN ZONES THAT COULD MODIFY AFTERNOON PROFILES... AND LIKELY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY PROBABLY WITH MORE CLOUDS. DUE TO
THE LIST OF UNKNOWNS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AND FOLLOW SHORT RANGE MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

IN SPITE OF DAYTIME CONFIDENCE ISSUES...MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AGREE
THAT AREA WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LARGE MCS OR TWO BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDER CHANCES AS POTENTIAL COMPLEX
EDGES EAST. IN ADDITION TO HIGHER CHANCES WE HAVE ADDED MORE
EXPLICIT SEVERE IMPACTS TO WEATHER GRIDS MATCHING DAY ONE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. COULD BE ANOTHER FAIRLY BIG DAY FOR WEATHER THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
ONE MORE ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS PRIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A QUIETER PATTERN TAKES
SHAPE COMPLETE WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
SPELL A DRY FRIDAY MORNING AND AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS. THAT LOOKS TO CHANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD
OF AN ENCROACHING UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF COLORADO ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HELPING TO SUPPLY A DEEP LAYER OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS A THETA-E RIDGE SITS IN
PLACE EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. PWATS IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE COMBINED WITH
CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
PERTURBATION TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE THESE FACTORS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...STEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY SLOW...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WITH THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE STORMS ALONG THUS HOPEFULLY NOT
PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRAINING OR STATIONARY RAINFALL.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING...COOL
SURFACE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGING AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
ATTEMPT TO ADVECT A FEW STORMS...ORIGINATING IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME...IN FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...SAID SUBSIDENCE AND
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS THREAT LOW WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS VERY LOW. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW GIVEN THIS AND
INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES LEADING TO DECREASING LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY. NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ATTEMPT TO BACK UPPER FLOW INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...SO
WILL MONITOR TRENDS MOVING FORWARD REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGING/BUILDING HEIGHTS IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  56  82  52 /  60  40  10  70
TULIA         78  57  81  56 /  60  60  20  70
PLAINVIEW     78  60  82  58 /  60  60  20  70
LEVELLAND     80  59  83  57 /  60  50  10  60
LUBBOCK       80  60  83  59 /  60  60  10  70
DENVER CITY   82  60  87  58 /  60  50  10  50
BROWNFIELD    81  59  85  58 /  60  50  10  50
CHILDRESS     81  61  83  60 /  60  70  30  80
SPUR          82  60  83  59 /  60  60  20  70
ASPERMONT     85  63  85  61 /  60  70  30  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ021>044-291700-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1146 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL POSE A RISK
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR HIGHER...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING. LOCAL RAIN TOTALS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE SOUTHEAST
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS A
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
917 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ022-028-029-281445-
LAMB TX-CASTRO TX-HALE TX-
917 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CASTRO...LAMB AND
WESTERN HALE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 916 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LITTLEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...HART...EARTH...AMHERST...COTTON CENTER...
SPADE...HALFWAY...FIELDTON AND SPRINGLAKE.

LAT...LON 3440 10200 3431 10200 3431 10194 3423 10187
      3387 10184 3383 10244 3420 10252 3450 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1416Z 237DEG 32KT 3398 10234

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
945 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ022-023-028-029-281515-
LAMB TX-CASTRO TX-SWISHER TX-HALE TX-
945 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SWISHER...
SOUTHEASTERN CASTRO...EASTERN LAMB AND WESTERN HALE COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

AT 944 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FIELDTON...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LITTLEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINVIEW...LITTLEFIELD...HALE CENTER...OLTON...HART...COTTON
CENTER...SPADE...HALFWAY...FIELDTON...SETH WARD...EDMONSON AND
SPRINGLAKE.

LAT...LON 3430 10169 3397 10174 3388 10232 3418 10241
      3438 10220 3448 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 235DEG 31KT 3408 10214

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1018 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ027-028-033-034-281545-
LAMB TX-COCHRAN TX-BAILEY TX-HOCKLEY TX-
1018 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOCKLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN LAMB...SOUTHEASTERN BAILEY AND NORTHERN COCHRAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

AT 1018 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MAPLE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF MORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORTON...NEEDMORE...MAPLE...BULA...PEP...MULESHOE WILDLIFE REFUGE AND
ENOCHS.

LAT...LON 3413 10262 3395 10244 3368 10242 3368 10298
      3382 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 239DEG 34KT 3377 10291

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ033-034-281630-
COCHRAN TX-HOCKLEY TX-
1105 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HOCKLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
COCHRAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1104 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF SUNDOWN...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEVELLAND...SUNDOWN...WHITHARRAL...PEP...AND WHITEFACE.

LAT...LON 3383 10256 3382 10238 3371 10223 3345 10225
      3343 10269 3357 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 239DEG 34KT 3355 10262

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1106 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ024-030-031-281630-
MOTLEY TX-FLOYD TX-BRISCOE TX-
1106 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FLOYD...NORTHWESTERN MOTLEY AND
SOUTHERN BRISCOE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1106 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LOCKNEY...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLOYDADA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLOYDADA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...LOCKNEY...CAPROCK CANYON STATE
PARK...VALLEY SCHOOLS...AIKEN...FLOMOT AND SOUTH PLAINS.

LAT...LON 3431 10095 3431 10094 3404 10093 3395 10156
      3407 10157 3430 10157 3431 10154 3431 10147
      3436 10147 3460 10110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 230DEG 27KT 3418 10145

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