Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPVW...BUT MAY MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF KLBB...BUT
COULD THREATEN KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS BEEN OMITTED
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. INSTEAD...THERE REMAINS A BETTER SHOT OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT THE TERMINALS BY 09-12Z. ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER/LIFT BY MID- TO LATE MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ021>044-281645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1135 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 27 AND US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDENT ON AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM STORMS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS WELL
AS A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1039 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLOOD            MEMPHIS                 34.73N 100.54W
05/27/2015                   HALL               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER UP TO DOOR ON POLICE SUV ON SIDE STREET IN
            MEMPHIS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1500237

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1100 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLOOD            5 S HALE CENTER         33.99N 101.84W
05/27/2015                   HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BOTH LANES OF INTERSTATE 27 NORTH AND SOUTH COVERED
            WITH WATER AT EXIT 32. REPORTED BY HALE COUNTY SHERIFFS
            OFFICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1500238

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE ABERNATHY         33.86N 101.76W
05/27/2015  M59 MPH          HALE               TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1500240

SCOBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
113 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW TURKEY            34.38N 100.93W
05/28/2015  M81 MPH          HALL               TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET REPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1500241

RMCQUEEN