Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /  20  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  30  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  40  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-
030>032-036>038-041>044.

&&

23/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ021>044-241730-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1220 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THE
SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM FORMATION REMAINS
LOW. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE DRYLINE
NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS...EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK
WITH PERHAPS A LOWER RISK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE
ACTIVITY EACH DAY COULD IMPACT THE SEVERE RISK IN SUBSEQUENT
DAYS...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL EACH DAY REMAINS UNCLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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