Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS St. Louis, MO

032 
WWUS53 KLSX 092347
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

MOC055-187-092357-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-150410T0015Z/
CRAWFORD MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-
647 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ST. FRANCOIS AND
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3820 9110 3821 9112 3828 9112 3840 9058
      3809 9048 3807 9061 3807 9064 3806 9064
      3799 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 255DEG 39KT 3810 9098

$$

MOC071-099-221-100015-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-150410T0015Z/
FRANKLIN MO-JEFFERSON MO-WASHINGTON MO-
647 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
WASHINGTON...WESTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 643 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANTHONIES
MILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DE SOTO...HILLSBORO...CEDAR HILL...RICHWOODS...LONEDELL...DITTMER...
PINEY PARK...FLETCHER...GRUBVILLE...OERMANN...MORSE MILL...VICTORIA
AND SCOTSDALE.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES MERAMEC STATE PARK AND WASHINGTON STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 44 NEAR EXIT 230.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9110 3821 9112 3828 9112 3840 9058
      3809 9048 3807 9061 3807 9064 3806 9064
      3799 9109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 255DEG 39KT 3810 9098

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
544 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of the
advancing cold front from south central IA thru western MO into
northeast OK. The best combination of deep layer shear AOA 40 kts
and CAPE is basically north of I-70 and especially across far
northern MO into southern IA, and this is where the best
organization and supercell structures have been observed. Present
indications are that coverage of storms should increase through
the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening with the
advancing cold front as large scale ascent associated with the
ejecting upstream shortwave overspreads the region. A mixed mode
of storms is expected with more persistent supercell structures
most likely still along and north of I-70 where increasing deep
layer shear will be present in association with the mid level jet.
Deep layer shear is unidirectional which does not bode well for a
good tornado threat, but if we can get some locallized backing of
the surface winds the threat may increase, especially across
northeast MO into west central IL closer to the track of the
surface low. Otherwise the main threat is large hail and locally
damaging winds. I have trimmed back the flash flood watch to
generally St. Louis south and east through mid evening. Storm
motion at 50+ mph suggests a rather low heavy rain threat. All the
storms should be east of the CWA by 03z or so with gusty west
winds in the wake of the front and a period of post-frontal
stratus persisting for a good portion of the tonight period.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

Cyclonic flow will persist across the area Friday in the wake of
the cold front and attendant cyclone and mixing should contribute
to some gusty west winds, especially across the northern half of
the CWA. Not expecting much in the way of clouds and while temps
will be cooler, I prefer the warmer of the MOS guidance. A
secondary cold front will settle southward through the region on
Friday night with high pressure building thru the upper/mid MS
valley and into southern IL by 12z Sat. This surface high will
slowly retreat on Saturday allowing for seasonable temperatures.

The next period of unsettled weather will unfold in the Saturday
night through Sunday night time frame. Intensifying southerly flow
on the western periphery of the retreating surface high and in
association with falling surface pressures across the plains will
lead to the northward return of moisture. Initially the
surface/PBL based moisture will stay to our west on Saturday
night, however a veering South-southwesterly LLJ late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning will bring elevated moisture
return into western and central MO. This moisture advection and
the moisture convergence along with large scale ascent associated
with a migrating disturbance aloft should produced a complex of
showers and thunderstorms into at least western MO overnight
Saturday, which could push into western sections of the CWA by
daybreak Sunday. Convective trends which can be dominated on the
mesoscale are always hard to gage several days in advance, but if
the previously mentioned scenario is accurate, a east-southeast
moving complex of showers and thunderstorms will impact the CWA on
Sunday. The greatest threat would be central MO and I have boosted
pops into the high chance range. Showers and thunderstorms look
likely across much of the area on Sunday night as the next cold
front moves across the area with an environment characterized by
weak instability and rather steep lapse rates aloft.

A fairly active period with multiple days of storm potential
exists during the extended period from Tuesday through Thursday.
First an upper low/trof will be weakening as it moves northeastward
through the southern/central Plains into MS Valley by early Wed in
conjunction with a lifting warm front and low level moisture
return. Later in the period a deep trof will move out of the
western U.S./Rockies and into the MS valley.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 513 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

A cold front extending from near UIN southwest to just west oF COU
will move through the St Louis metro area around 00Z Friday.
Thunderstorms will move through the St Louis metro area between
00-01Z Friday. Post frontal, MVFR cigs will move through UIN and
COU this evening and may graze the St Louis metro area later this
evening and into the overnight hours. Strong and gusty swly
surface winds in the St Louis metro area will veer around to a wly
direction early this evening after fropa. The surface wind should
weaken some late tonight. Little cloud cover on Friday, maybe few
diurnal cumulus clouds in the afternoon. A weak, dry secondary
cold front will move southeastward through the area Friday
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: Fast moving storms will move through the STL
area until 01Z early this evening. Strong and gusty s-swly surface
wind will veer around to a wly direction early this evening after
fropa. The wind speeds should weaken some late tonight, but then
may pick up a little bit again late Friday morning into the early
afternoon. The southern fringe of MVFR, post frontal stratus or
stratocumulus clouds may briefly move through STL late this
evening into the overnight hours. Little cloud cover expected
Friday and Friday evening, maybe a few diurnal cumulus clouds
Friday afternoon. Surface winds will become light Friday evening
after the passage of a weak secondary cold front, as a surface high
moves into northeast MO and west central IL.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 11 PM CDT this evening FOR Jefferson MO-
     St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis
     MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 11 PM CDT this evening FOR Bond IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
429 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101145-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
429 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
602 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             TROY                    38.98N  90.98W
04/09/2015  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALMOST GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH AN ANCHORED SWING
            SET BLOWN 30 FEET

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TROY                    38.98N  90.98W
04/09/2015                   LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALMOST GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH AN ANCHORED SWING
            SET BLOWN 30 FEET

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
603 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             WINFIELD                39.00N  90.74W
04/09/2015  E1.25 INCH       LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
605 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             1 N MOSCOW MILLS        38.96N  90.92W
04/09/2015  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
606 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     WALL CLOUD       8 W WHITE HALL          39.44N  90.55W
04/09/2015                   GREENE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD BECOMING RAIN-WRAPPED.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
608 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TROY                    38.98N  90.98W
04/09/2015                   LINCOLN            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SNAPPED POWER POLES IN TROY.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             ELSBERRY                39.17N  90.79W
04/09/2015  E0.25 INCH       LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS