Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS St. Louis, MO

612 
WWUS53 KLSX 092334
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MOC055-073-092345-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-150809T2345Z/
CRAWFORD MO-GASCONADE MO-
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

AT 633 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CUBA...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SULLIVAN...CUBA...BOURBON...LEASBURG...ST. CLOUD...OAK HILL AND
ROSATI.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES ONONDAGA CAVE STATE PARK.
 
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN EXITS 203 AND 218.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 9153 3815 9153 3815 9164 3829 9165
      3824 9137 3820 9137 3821 9115 3820 9112
      3796 9119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 281DEG 36KT 3816 9141 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GLASS

708 
WWUS53 KLSX 092346
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MOC055-073-092355-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-150809T2345Z/
CRAWFORD MO-GASCONADE MO-
646 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST CRAWFORD 
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GASCONADE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.   HOWEVER...A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH 
CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND EAST CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM.  

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3802 9153 3815 9153 3815 9164 3829 9165
      3824 9137 3820 9137 3821 9115 3820 9112
      3796 9119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 279DEG 34KT 3816 9141 

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS OBSERVATIONS SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH CRITERIA EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE HAMPERED FROM CLIMBING BECAUSE OF CLOUDS TODAY.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THERE
IS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF IT.  AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
WHICH IS BEING GENERATED BY MCV OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.  WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THIS AREA OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30KT RANGE.  THE STORMS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND THE
850MB WINDS VEER.  ALSO THINK THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN THAT PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2.0 INCHES...THOUGH WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AS
UPPER HIGH OVER OVER SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILDS AND
TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.  THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY.  BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS MIDDAY MONDAY.  THE ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
INSTABILITY GENERATED BY MIDDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.  ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IOWA. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND THE
VERTICAL MOTION BECOMES MORE SUBSIDENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND WITH MIXING UP TO THE 900-800MB LAYER...SO HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEM.

(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALOFT.  850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WILL BE IN THE 12-18C RANGE
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL MO WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA THIS EVENING. COULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. S-SWLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO A N-NWLY DIRECTION AFTER FROPA.
THE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT POST FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD
CEILINGS MAINLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
STL EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH STL AREA.
SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO A NWLY DIRECTION AFTER
FROPA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE POST FRONTAL
MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COLE MO-CRAWFORD
     MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO-
     REYNOLDS MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM UNTIL 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

BRITT