Heat Advisory 7, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
229 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MCS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE
MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AFFECTING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER. SOME INDICATION THAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70
THIS MORNING WHERE A WING OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 12Z. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BEING LAYED OUT IN ITS WAKE.

APPEARS THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL
SEE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S. THIS HEAT COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 70S WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA IF CLOUD COVER CLEARS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO LEAD TO A PRIMED ATMOSPHERE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 20KT...BUT
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS SHORTFALL AND
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AM
ALSO INCREASINGLY CONCERNED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAIN
EAST...NEAR I-70 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ADDED A MENTION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GRIDS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON
BULLISH NAM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FINALLY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM UIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA SHOULD ADVECT EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 06Z SUNDAY. COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHWEST MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION, BUT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT NORTH OF COU
AND THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA FOR UIN TAF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM THE NOCTURNAL MCS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PARTICULARLY FROM COU TO STL. SELY SURFACE WINDS
LATE TONIGHT WILL VEER AROUND TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER STL
WILL ADVECT E OF STL BY 06Z SUNDAY...BUT THEN RETURN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN MCS APPROACHES. A FEW STORMS
MAY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO STL AREA SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF STL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SELY SURFACE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SLY ON
SUNDAY.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     91  73  89  70 /  40  80  20  20
QUINCY          86  71  85  65 /  80  40  30  20
COLUMBIA        94  73  89  67 /  50  70  20  20
JEFFERSON CITY  96  73  91  68 /  40  80  20  20
SALEM           88  74  85  68 /  40  70  20  20
FARMINGTON      92  75  89  71 /  20  60  50  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
     OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

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