Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS St. Louis, MO

April 7, 2015Audrain County, Callaway County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 7, 2015, 5:34 AM CDT for Audrain County, Callaway County, Missouri. It was in force for 56 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 7, 2015, 5:34 AM CDT (10:34 UTC)
Expired: Apr 7, 2015, 6:30 AM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Audrain County, MO, Callaway County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 7, 6:05 AM CDT	HAIL 1.5	3 Nnw Kingdom City, MO	MEASUREMENT TAKEN 30 MINS AFTER HAIL FELL...COCORAHS REPORT
Apr 7, 6:12 AM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Kingdom City, MO
Apr 7, 6:17 AM CDT	HAIL 1.75	4 Se Kingdom City, MO	REPORTED IN CALWOOD...RELAYED VIA KOMU...TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 31 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 282 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 952 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -213 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 185 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 263 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

499 
WUUS53 KLSX 071034
SVRLSX
MOC007-027-071130-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0015.150407T1034Z-150407T1130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
534 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 532 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MURRY...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MEXICO...AUXVASSE...WILLIAMSBURG...SHAMROCK...MARTINSBURG...
  HATTON...KINGDOM CITY...VANDIVER AND BENTON CITY.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 137 TO EXIT 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9215 3899 9213 3901 9214 3902 9213
      3903 9214 3906 9213 3907 9211 3916 9210
      3919 9162 3888 9164 3892 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1035Z 271DEG 26KT 3903 9215

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TILLY

3 follow-up statements

373 
WWUS53 KLSX 071041
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
541 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

MOC007-027-071130-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150407T1130Z/
CALLAWAY MO-AUDRAIN MO-
541 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 539 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MURRY...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEXICO...AUXVASSE...SHAMROCK...WILLIAMSBURG...MARTINSBURG...HATTON...
KINGDOM CITY...VANDIVER AND BENTON CITY.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 137 TO EXIT 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9215 3899 9213 3901 9214 3902 9213
      3903 9214 3906 9213 3907 9211 3916 9210
      3919 9162 3888 9164 3892 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 274DEG 29KT 3902 9210

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TILLY

698 
WWUS53 KLSX 071100
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
600 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

MOC007-027-071130-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150407T1130Z/
CALLAWAY MO-AUDRAIN MO-
600 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 558 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AUXVASSE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUXVASSE...SHAMROCK...WILLIAMSBURG...MARTINSBURG...KINGDOM CITY...
VANDIVER AND BENTON CITY.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 144 TO EXIT 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9205 3919 9162 3915 9162 3914 9163
      3906 9163 3905 9164 3888 9164 3892 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 275DEG 29KT 3899 9196

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TILLY

657 
WWUS53 KLSX 071131
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
631 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

MOC007-027-071140-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150407T1130Z/
CALLAWAY MO-AUDRAIN MO-
631 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AUDRAIN AND
NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH 
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CALLAWAY COUNTY WHERE ANOTHER SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM. 

LAT...LON 3914 9205 3919 9162 3915 9162 3914 9163
      3906 9163 3905 9164 3888 9164 3892 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 273DEG 28KT 3893 9201

$$

TILLY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 7, 4:36 AM CDT, 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 4:36 AM CDT, 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Starting to sound like a broken record, but once again, focus will
be precip chances thru the period.

Expect precip over the ern portions of the CWA to continue moving
out of the area early this morning. Some isod SHRA, and perhaps TS,
will be possible. However, main focus is expected to be the ongoing
TSRA over wrn MO. Numerous mdl solns suggest this cluster of TSRA
will lift enewd into the area this morning and build sewd late this
morning, perhaps into the afternoon, as the LLJ veers. However, some
question remains how far E and S these storms will propagate before
dissipating as the LLJ weakens. As these storms dissipate, expect a
lull this afternoon into the evening before the next round arrives.
Some question remains as to where/when TSRA will initiate, but best
chances shud be along the sfc boundary across the nrn portions of
the CWA, tho any outflow boundaries may also help initiate storms.
Have kept PoPs for tonight in the change range due to questions in
boundary locations.

Given the amount of elevated CAPE and deep shear available, a severe
threat will exist with hail and winds as a primary threat.

Little change in temps for today and tonight with continued trends
twd warm guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Not many changes from the prev forecast. Still a number of
questions exist with upcoming system. A severe threat still exists
on Wed during the late afternoon and overnight period. The greater
threat still exists on Thurs as the cdfnt pushes thru the region.
Mdl solns have changed slightly from yesterday. Mdls have sped up
timing of fropa slightly, with bulk of precip expected to be E of
the CWA by 06z Fri. Mdls now have upper trof remaining neutral as
it approaches the region. Still, enuf CAPE and deep shear will
exist to pose a severe threat. Please see the latest SPC day 2 and
day 3 outlooks for the latest info as local thinking agrees with
SPC.

Mdl solns differ regarding timing of the next system Sat into Sun.
Have low PoPs early to account for the GFS soln and trended twd
higher PoPs where/when mdls are in better agreement.

Otherwise, have continued warm trend thru Thurs despite the ample
cloud cover expected. Cooler, but seasonal avg, temps are expected
this weekend as a large sfc ridge settles into the area.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015

Showers and thunderstorms developed in warm sector this evening
and remain just out of TAF sites. For now cigs will be the main
issue varying between VFR, MVFR and IFR. As warm front lifts north
through region, cigs to lower down to IFR between 07z and 09z
Tuesday. Models now holding off precip for TAF sites til closer to
daybreak, after 11z Tuesday, as complex develops over central MO
and slides east along I-70 corridor, before diminishing by mid
morning. Then front to lift north allowing cigs to lift and thin
out a bit. As for winds, to remain southeast to south for sites
along I-70 corridor while KUIN will see southeast winds back to
the east as front moves closer, then eventually veer back to the
south as front lifts north of KUIN.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms developed in warm sector this evening
and remain just south of metro area TAFs. For now cigs will be the
main issue varying between VFR, MVFR and IFR. As warm front lifts
north through region, cigs to lower down to IFR by 07z Tuesday.
Models now holding off precip for STL til closer to daybreak,
after 12z Tuesday, as complex develops over central MO and slides
east along I-70 corridor, before diminishing by 15z Tuesday. Then front
to lift north allowing cigs to lift and thin out a bit. As for
winds, to remain southeast to south.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     80  64  81  68 /  60  40  50  70
Quincy          74  60  77  62 /  60  40  60  80
Columbia        79  62  80  64 /  60  40  60  70
Jefferson City  80  63  81  65 /  60  40  60  70
Salem           77  62  79  66 /  50  40  30  70
Farmington      78  62  81  65 /  40  30  30  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 7, 4:13 AM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
413 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
413 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE..WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THURSDAY...AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL THAT THEY OBSERVE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

TILLY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 7, 4:50 AM CDT, 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

MOZ041-042-071030-
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
450 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN
BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 449 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COLUMBIA...
  CENTRALIA...
  MIDWAY...
  STURGEON...
  HALLSVILLE...
  MURRY...

MILLER

Local storm report, Apr 7, 5:23 AM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     HAIL             1 N COLUMBIA            38.97N  92.33W
04/07/2015  E0.70 INCH       BOONE              MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

TILLY

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 7, 4:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Boone	46 min
Apr 7, 6:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Callaway, Montgomery	67 min
Apr 7, 7:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Montgomery, Warren	54 min
Apr 7, 7:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren	49 min
Apr 7, 8:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis	48 min
Apr 7, 9:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson	42 min
Apr 7, 9:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	49 min
Apr 7, 9:42 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren	8 hr
Apr 7, 9:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson	47 min
Apr 7, 10:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	42 min
Apr 7, 10:43 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	4 hr
Apr 7, 10:53 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Jefferson, Washington	4 hr
Apr 7, 12:42 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Saint Charles	35 hr
Apr 7, 12:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois, Washington	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.