Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS St. Louis, MO

129 
WWUS53 KLSX 071018
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
518 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

MOC019-071045-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150407T1045Z/
BOONE MO-
518 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BOONE
COUNTY UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 515 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HALLSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTRALIA...STURGEON...HALLSVILLE AND MURRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 9243 3925 9232 3924 9211 3907 9211
      3906 9213 3903 9214 3902 9213 3901 9214
      3900 9213 3898 9215 3891 9216 3896 9248
      3906 9249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1018Z 264DEG 32KT 3905 9228

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Starting to sound like a broken record, but once again, focus will
be precip chances thru the period.

Expect precip over the ern portions of the CWA to continue moving
out of the area early this morning. Some isod SHRA, and perhaps TS,
will be possible. However, main focus is expected to be the ongoing
TSRA over wrn MO. Numerous mdl solns suggest this cluster of TSRA
will lift enewd into the area this morning and build sewd late this
morning, perhaps into the afternoon, as the LLJ veers. However, some
question remains how far E and S these storms will propagate before
dissipating as the LLJ weakens. As these storms dissipate, expect a
lull this afternoon into the evening before the next round arrives.
Some question remains as to where/when TSRA will initiate, but best
chances shud be along the sfc boundary across the nrn portions of
the CWA, tho any outflow boundaries may also help initiate storms.
Have kept PoPs for tonight in the change range due to questions in
boundary locations.

Given the amount of elevated CAPE and deep shear available, a severe
threat will exist with hail and winds as a primary threat.

Little change in temps for today and tonight with continued trends
twd warm guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2015

Not many changes from the prev forecast. Still a number of
questions exist with upcoming system. A severe threat still exists
on Wed during the late afternoon and overnight period. The greater
threat still exists on Thurs as the cdfnt pushes thru the region.
Mdl solns have changed slightly from yesterday. Mdls have sped up
timing of fropa slightly, with bulk of precip expected to be E of
the CWA by 06z Fri. Mdls now have upper trof remaining neutral as
it approaches the region. Still, enuf CAPE and deep shear will
exist to pose a severe threat. Please see the latest SPC day 2 and
day 3 outlooks for the latest info as local thinking agrees with
SPC.

Mdl solns differ regarding timing of the next system Sat into Sun.
Have low PoPs early to account for the GFS soln and trended twd
higher PoPs where/when mdls are in better agreement.

Otherwise, have continued warm trend thru Thurs despite the ample
cloud cover expected. Cooler, but seasonal avg, temps are expected
this weekend as a large sfc ridge settles into the area.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2015

Showers and thunderstorms developed in warm sector this evening
and remain just out of TAF sites. For now cigs will be the main
issue varying between VFR, MVFR and IFR. As warm front lifts north
through region, cigs to lower down to IFR between 07z and 09z
Tuesday. Models now holding off precip for TAF sites til closer to
daybreak, after 11z Tuesday, as complex develops over central MO
and slides east along I-70 corridor, before diminishing by mid
morning. Then front to lift north allowing cigs to lift and thin
out a bit. As for winds, to remain southeast to south for sites
along I-70 corridor while KUIN will see southeast winds back to
the east as front moves closer, then eventually veer back to the
south as front lifts north of KUIN.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and thunderstorms developed in warm sector this evening
and remain just south of metro area TAFs. For now cigs will be the
main issue varying between VFR, MVFR and IFR. As warm front lifts
north through region, cigs to lower down to IFR by 07z Tuesday.
Models now holding off precip for STL til closer to daybreak,
after 12z Tuesday, as complex develops over central MO and slides
east along I-70 corridor, before diminishing by 15z Tuesday. Then front
to lift north allowing cigs to lift and thin out a bit. As for
winds, to remain southeast to south.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     80  64  81  68 /  60  40  50  70
Quincy          74  60  77  62 /  60  40  60  80
Columbia        79  62  80  64 /  60  40  60  70
Jefferson City  80  63  81  65 /  60  40  60  70
Salem           77  62  79  66 /  50  40  30  70
Farmington      78  62  81  65 /  40  30  30  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
413 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
413 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE..WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THURSDAY...AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL THAT THEY OBSERVE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

TILLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

MOZ041-042-071030-
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
450 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN
BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 449 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COLUMBIA...
  CENTRALIA...
  MIDWAY...
  STURGEON...
  HALLSVILLE...
  MURRY...

MILLER