Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS St. Louis, MO

June 28, 2015Crawford County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 28, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT for Crawford County, Missouri. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 28, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC)
Expired
Jun 28, 2015, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
45 min
Issued by
NWS St. Louis, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

County Crawford County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jun 28, 3:03 PM CDTTornado WatchSPC8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 245 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2015-06-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 961 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2015-06-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 159 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
961 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1532 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
159 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
279 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
10.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

001 
WUUS53 KLSX 290100
SVRLSX
MOC055-290145-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0128.150629T0100Z-150629T0145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
800 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 758 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF STEELVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHERRYVILLE...DAVISVILLE AND DILLARD.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES DILLARD MILL HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3775 9132 3778 9131 3779 9137 3789 9153
      3797 9153 3805 9144 3790 9109 3777 9110
      3774 9113 3774 9115 3772 9115 3769 9118
      3770 9124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 308DEG 30KT 3791 9141

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KANOFSKY
3 follow-up statements
913 
WWUS53 KLSX 290113 RRA
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
813 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MOC055-290145-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-150629T0145Z/
CRAWFORD MO-
813 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 810 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHERRYVILLE...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVISVILLE AND DILLARD.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES DILLARD MILL HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9124 3775 9132 3778 9131 3779 9138
      3785 9146 3797 9126 3790 9109 3777 9110
      3774 9113 3774 9115 3772 9115 3769 9118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 308DEG 30KT 3784 9130

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KANOFSKY
718 
WWUS53 KLSX 290132
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
832 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MOC055-290145-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-150629T0145Z/
CRAWFORD MO-
832 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 830 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIBURNUM...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES DILLARD MILL HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9125 3774 9132 3778 9131 3788 9121
      3782 9110 3777 9110 3774 9113 3774 9115
      3772 9115 3769 9118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 308DEG 30KT 3774 9114

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KANOFSKY
236 
WWUS53 KLSX 290138
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MOC055-290148-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-150629T0145Z/
CRAWFORD MO-
838 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3770 9125 3774 9132 3778 9131 3788 9121
      3782 9110 3777 9110 3774 9113 3774 9115
      3772 9115 3769 9118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 308DEG 30KT 3771 9110

$$

KANOFSKY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 28, 3:48 PM CDT, 4 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 28, 3:48 PM CDT, 4 hours 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

It appears that the late afternoon and early evening severe weather
threat is beginning to take shape with the recent development of
convection over ne MO between KIRK-KUIN.  Instability has made a
slow but steady increase over western MO...with of MLCAPES 2000-2500
J/Kg now over west central MO being advected northeast by low level
winds ahead of southward pressing surface low over IA.  Believe all
modes of severe weather will be in play early this evening, but
somewhat increasing concern is tornado potential as low level flow
from eastern MO into sw IL backs in advance of the surface low
producing favorable low level helicity...and SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that 0-1km SRH has now ramped up into the 150-200 range
from KUIN to just N of STL metro.  Believe that tonight's storms
will be the typical "quick hit" variety that is typical of NW flow
situations, and although they will be producing heavy rain they will
also be progressive so persistent excessive rains are not
anticipated.  It's likely that the bulk of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will be between now and midnight, but have
maintained chance PoPs over southeast sections of the CWA into the
predawn hours ahead of surface low and associated frontal boundary.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

(Monday through Tuesday)

NW flow aloft will continue early this weekend. Much like
yesterday...some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
expected to develop primarily in the afternoon/early evening hours
each day with the higher threat along and east of the Mississippi
River which will reside under cooler temps aloft. Slightly below normal
to near normal temperatures expected each day with highs in the
80s.

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)

More active weather is still anticipated for midweek beginning late
Tuesday night into early Thursday. A more vigorous shortwave trough
will transverse the lower Missouri River Valley and interact with
strong low-level warm/moist advection. Thunderstorms are likely
Wednesday and Wednesday night with the axis of highest probabilities
through central and southeastern Missouri.

Northwest flow will continue through next weekend with more showers
and thunderstorms possible each period. Another shortwave looks to
affect the bi-state area on Friday/Friday night. Still have high
chance PoPs for now as there is some temporal differences between
the GFS/EC/Canadian.

Pattern for the 4th of July weekend looks fairly similar to
Monday/Tuesday of this week with slightly below normal temperatures
for highs and diurnal instability helping develop convection each
afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Expect rapid storm development in the 20-22z time frame as UVV
associated upper level shortwave over eastern IA drops south and interacts
with low level WAA of increasinginly unstable airmass over our
CWA. TAFs reflect a first estimate of timing and intensity
(primarily IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) at each location, which will be
updated once convection shows its hand. Current indications are
that convection should also shut down rapidly during the early
evening hours, with tranquil VFR conditions.

Specifics for KSTL: Clouds aoa 5kft and scattered showers are
anticipated early this afternoon, with increasing threat of
intense thunderstorms (IFR vsbys/MVFR cigs) in the 22-00z time
frame due to features mentioned in the primary AFD discussion.
Storms should rapidly sweep southeast of the area during the early
evening hours, with VFR conditions/clear skies for the remainder
of the overnight hours.

Truett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  84  70  89 /  70  30  20  30
Quincy          64  80  65  85 /  70  30  20  30
Columbia        65  84  66  88 /  60   5  10  20
Jefferson City  65  85  67  88 /  60   5  10  10
Salem           67  82  67  83 /  60  30  20  30
Farmington      66  84  65  87 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 28, 3:46 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
346 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE NORTH...MIDDLE AND SOUTH FABIUS RIVERS...THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT QUINCY...QUINCY LOCK AND DAM 21...AND SAVERTON LOCK AND
DAM 22 AS WELL AS POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER ARE CURRENTLY IN
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR
FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE
NORTH...MIDDLE AND SOUTH FABIUS RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
EXCEED MAJOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MONDAY. MAJOR FLOODING IS
FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WINFIELD LOCK AND DAM
25...GRAFTON AND CHESTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL...WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40MPH OR WIND
DAMAGE...AS WELL AS WALL CLOUDS...FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND TORNADOES TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GOSSELIN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 28, 6:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     WALL CLOUD       1 N GERALD              38.41N  91.33W
06/28/2015                   FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEEING ROTATION.

&&

BYRD
Local storm report, Jun 28, 7:31 PM CDT, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
731 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     WALL CLOUD       TROY                    38.98N  90.98W
06/28/2015                   LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEEING ROTATION JUST SOUTH OF TROY.

&&

BYRD
Local storm report, Jun 28, 7:42 PM CDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
742 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          EOLIA                   39.24N  91.01W
06/28/2015                   PIKE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 TOUCHDOWNS...TREE DAMAGE...NO OTHER INFORMATION AT
            THIS TIME.

&&

BYRD
Local storm report, Jun 28, 7:44 PM CDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
744 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLD MONROE              38.93N  90.75W
06/28/2015  E50 MPH          LINCOLN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.

&&

BYRD
Local storm report, Jun 28, 7:59 PM CDT, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
759 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     HAIL             GODFREY                 38.97N  90.19W
06/28/2015  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN
Local storm report, Jun 28, 8:00 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
800 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             STEELEVILLE             38.01N  89.66W
06/28/2015  E0.25 INCH       RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 28, 7:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXLincoln, Saint Charles47 min
Jun 28, 8:02 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXSaint Charles, Saint Louis28 min
Jun 28, 8:26 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXSaint Charles, Saint Louis37 min
Jun 28, 8:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXSaint Louis, City of Saint Louis42 min
Jun 28, 9:17 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXSaint Louis, City of Saint Louis3 hr
Jun 28, 9:50 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLSXSaint Louis6 hr
Jun 29, 5:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXPike37 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.