River Flood Warning 225, NWS St. Louis, MO

213 
WGUS83 KLSX 261917
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
117 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...


  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters


.This Flood Warning is a result of 4 to 6 inches of precipitation forecast
in the next 48 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than currently forecast could cause river levels to rise
even higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
developing situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-271917-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.151227T0203Z-151230T0420Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151227T0203Z.151227T1200Z.151229T0420Z.UU/
117 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Tuesday.
* At 1 PM Saturday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 24.6 feet Monday morning.
* Impact: At 24.5 feet...University of Missouri Agricultural Extension
  parking lot and greenhouse begins to flood near this level.
* Impact: At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins flooding
  near this height.
* Impact: At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee between
  the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding Highway C and the
  cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact: At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass beneath
  the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact: At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south of
  Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.
* Impact: At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball fields at
  Sports Center Park.
* Impact: At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports Park
  and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this height.
* Impact: At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles County
  Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact: At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become flooded.
* Impact: At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south of Main
  Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/27  12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   17.00      24.6   22.7   14.3    8.3    6.1

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061 3876 9062                       

$$

382 
WGUS83 KLSX 270359
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
959 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters 

.This flood warning is a result of 4.00 inches of observed rainfall and 
an additional 2.00 inches of rain is expected through Monday...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-280359-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151230T1010Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T1200Z.151229T1010Z.UU/
959 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* At 9:00 PM Saturday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 24.2 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...University of Missouri Agricultural 
  Extension parking lot and greenhouse begins to flood near this 
  level.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/27  12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.04      24.2   22.2   17.0    9.6    6.6


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

142 
WGUS83 KLSX 270842
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
242 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters

.This Flood Warning is a result of up to 6 inches of precipitation the 
past 24 hours and up to 3 inches forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-280842-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151230T1030Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T1200Z.151229T1030Z.UU/
242 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until late Tuesday night.
* At  2:00 AM Sunday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 23.0 feet by this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   22.08      23.0   22.1   17.2    9.7    6.7


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

822 
WGUS83 KLSX 271608
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...


  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
  
  
.This Flood Warning is a result of 4 to 7 inches of precipitation the 
past 30 hours and 2 to 3 inches forecast in the next 36 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rainfall heavier than currently forecast could cause river levels to rise
even higher than predicted. The National Weather Service will monitor this
developing situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-281608-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151230T1032Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T1800Z.151229T1032Z.UU/
1008 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Tuesday.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 23.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 23.9 feet today...fall to near 19 feet
  by Monday morning...have a secondary crest near 22.6 feet Monday evening and
  fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   23.44      19.3   17.2    9.7    6.7    5.5

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061 3876 9062                       

$$

644 
WGUS83 KLSX 280027
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
627 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County 

.This Flood Warning is a result of 5 to 7 inches of precipitation the 
past 24 hours and 2 to 4 inches forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-290027-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151231T0300Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151228T0600Z.151230T0300Z.UU/
627 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  6:00 PM Sunday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to crest near 24.1 feet by after
  midnight tomorrow. The creek will fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  before midnight.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...University of Missouri Agricultural 
  Extension parking lot and greenhouse begins to flood near this 
  level.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   24.01      21.6   14.3    9.4    6.5    5.4


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

571 
WGUS83 KLSX 280318
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Missouri...

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters 

.This Flood Warning is a result of 6.00 to 8.00 inches of rainfall this 
weekend and an additional 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain is expected through
Monday...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-290318-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151231T0300Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T2345Z.151230T0300Z.UU/
918 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* At 9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 23.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Crested at 24.03 feet just before 600 pm this evening.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* The river is past crest and will continue falling to below flood
  stage Tuesday before midnight.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/28  12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   23.84      23.3   21.6   14.3    9.4    6.5


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

056 
WGUS83 KLSX 281848
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County 

.This Flood Warning is a result of excessive rainfall this past weekend
and an additional 1.00 inch today...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-291848-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151231T0420Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T2345Z.151230T0420Z.UU/
1248 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* At 12:00 PM Monday the stage was 23.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  late tomorrow evening.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   23.06      22.5   14.9   11.7    9.5    7.9


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

985 
WGUS83 KLSX 290354
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
954 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following Creek in Missouri...
 
             
                 Dardenne Creek at
                 
                  ...St. Peters 


.This Flood Warning is a result of excessive heavy rainfall...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Heavy rains can cause water levels to rise even higher than predicted.

The National Weather Service will monitor this situation and issue follow
up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive any vehicle through flooded areas.
The water may be too deep to allow for safe passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-300354-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151231T0720Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T2345Z.151230T0720Z.UU/
954 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters.
* At 9:00 PM Monday the stage was 23.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* The water level will fall below flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/29  12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   23.33      23.5   15.9   10.3    6.7    5.5


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

186 
WGUS83 KLSX 291913
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
113 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County 

.This Flood Warning is a result of 6 to 10 inches of rainfall over
the weekend...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-301913-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151231T0352Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T2345Z.151230T0352Z.UU/
113 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  1:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 19.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue falling to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02  01/03

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   19.78      15.9   12.8   11.0    9.2    7.4


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

827 
WGUS83 KLSX 300046
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following CREEK in Missouri...
 
  
  
             Dardenne Creek at
             
              ...St. Peters 
                 

THE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS POINT.


This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-300116-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0225.000000T0000Z-151231T0352Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.151226T2028Z.151227T2345Z.151229T2200Z.UU/
646 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters.
* At  6:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The water level fell below the flood stage at 4:00 PM Tuesday.
* The river will continue to fall to 12.8 feet by Thursday morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/30  12/31  01/01  01/02  01/03

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   16.30      15.9   12.8   11.0    9.2    7.4


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
825 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 825 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2015

Very little change made to the forecast other than to tweak sky
cover. After examining the 00z NAM and most recent HRRR and RAP
versus current satellite and radar trends, we still anticipate the
currently pcpn echo-free radar to rapidly fill in for most of our
forecast area late tonight and Saturday morning, of which trends
were handled well by the previous forecast.

Temps will likely bottom out and hit their min values this evening
with a slow rise overnight as clouds thicken and dewpoints rise.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2015

Currently experiencing the calm before the storm across the CWA
with high pressure to our north bringing tranquil conditions and
above average temperatures. Main activity at this time is the
frontal boundary draped from the TN Valley into lower MS Valley.
All indications are that fall heights and surface pressure tonight
across the high Plains along with the eastward retreat of the
surface high to our north will allow for a sizable response in
the atmosphere. Low level flow above the boundary layer is
forecast to veer and strengthen, with a veering 30-40+ kt south-
southwesterly LLJ transporting anomalously deep moisture northward
into the area while the surface boundary gradually retreats
northward as well. Precipitation should develop in response
although it appears to be delayed until overnight. The best threat
appears to be after 08-09z when elevated showers and thunderstorms
are expected primarily south of I-70 across southern MO into SW
IL.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2015

...Very Serious-High Impact and Potentially Historic Heavy Rain/Flood
Event Likely Saturday Afternoon into Monday...

High Points...

Confidence is growing and high at this point in time that a very
serious high-impact and potentially historic heavy rain/flood
event will occur in the Saturday night into Monday. This event
will feature life-threatening flash flooding on creeks/streams and
poor drainage areas, and major to historic flooding on area
rivers. The Meramec River is a huge concern.

Widespread area average storm total rainfall is now forecast in the
5-8 inch range across the southeast half of the CWA. The Bullseye
for heaviest rainfall would be late Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night with embedded convection/high rainfall rates and training,
however this will also be a prolonged event lasting well into
Monday. A flash flood watch is already in place and we have now
expanded it northward some to account for greater northward spread
of significant precipitation during the event.

Discussion...

The rapid evolution and expansion of a wide wsw-ene oriented band
of rain and thunderstorms is expected on Saturday along and north
of the lifting frontal zone. This will be in response to strong
deep layer ascent associated with a 40+ s/swly LLJ, disturbances
with the SW flow aloft and divergence aloft within the entrance
region of an anticyclonically curved ULJ. All the models have a
strong signal just differ some on the boundary location. Prefer
a blend of the GFS/ECMWF with this aspect and QPF placement with
the front near the I-44 corridor in MO and I-70 in IL at 00z
Sunday, feeling the NAM is too far north lifting the boundary
into cooler air.

The worst of this prolonged event appears to have a bullseye on
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. PWs are forecast to
exceed 1.5 inches which is 5 standard deviations above normal!
Strong deep layer ascent is focused in a broad region along and
north of the surface front resulting from frontogenesis, low level
MCON/lift, upper level disturbances and the ULJ entrance region.
This focused elongated forcing and flow aloft parallel to the
frontal zone favors training with elevated instability supporting
embedded convection. Along and south of the frontal zone there
could also be a few severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

The front then sags southeastward late Saturday night and this
will shift some of the focus of the axis of heaviest rainfall on
Sunday to the southeast third of the CWA. Finally late Sunday into
Monday will be the last aspect of the event as a strong closed upper
low and the associated vertically stacked system lifts north/northeast
through the MS Valley. This will lead a renewed northward spread
in rain, although rates appear lower with this round. While there
are differences in the system track, the most favored is a
western track which would largely keep any wintry precipitation at
bay to the west, with some chance of snow Monday night across
northeast and central MO in the cyclonic flow/CAA in the wake of
the departing system.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CST Fri Dec 25 2015

VFR for the first 0-6 hours until MVFR clouds spread across the
area ahead of an approaching low pressure system. This system will
bring a prolonged period of rain and reduced cigs/vsbys to all
TAF sites. Moderate rain and IFR cigs are expected after 12-15z.
Embedded thunderstorms are also possible, especially after 26/18z.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
     Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-
     Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
     MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
401 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
401 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

VERY SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD
EVENT LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO CARLINVILLE ILLINOIS LINE, WITH AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES NORTH OF THIS LINE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. FLOODING OF
MOST RIVERS IS EXPECTED WITH MAJOR AND POSSIBLY HISTORIC FLOODING
ON SOME RIVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
SHOULD GEAR UP FOR THE UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND ARE ASKED TO
RELAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND ANY FLOODING.

GLASS