River Flood Warning 188, NWS St. Louis, MO

192 
WGUS83 KLSX 141755
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1155 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  North River at Palmyra affecting Marion County 

.This Flood Warning is a result of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation the 
past 24 hours and .10 inch forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC127-151755-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0188.000000T0000Z-151216T0900Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.151214T0759Z.151214T1800Z.151215T0900Z.NO/
1155 AM CST MON DEC 14 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North River at Palmyra
* until early Tuesday morning.
* At 11:30 AM Monday the stage was 16.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 17.0 feet by this 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* Impact:  At 17.1 feet...Agricultural land along the left bank begins
  flooding near the gage.
* Impact:  At 14.0 feet...Marion County Rd 341 north of Palmyra 
  inundated. Significant agricultural land flooding...right bank.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/15  12/16  12/17  12/18  12/19

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   16.72      12.3    7.3    5.7    5.3    5.1


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

110 
WGUS83 KLSX 150228
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
828 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
 
  North River at 
  
      Palmyra 
  

.This will be the final statement for this flood event...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC127-150258-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0188.000000T0000Z-151216T0900Z/
/PALM7.2.ER.151214T0759Z.151214T1745Z.151215T0126Z.NO/
828 PM CST MON DEC 14 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The North River at Palmyra.
* At 7:30 PM Monday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 7:26 PM Monday.
* The river is forecast to continue to fall to near 6.8 feet Wednesday 
  morning.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     12/15  12/16  12/17  12/18  12/19

North River
  Palmyra         13.0   12.93       8.8    6.8    5.8    5.3    5.1


&&


LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170




$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
840 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 838 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2015

Fine line on radar of enhanced reflectivities marching east toward
the Mississippi River marks a wind shift from the southeast to
the southwest. Rain extends all the way back into southwest
Missouri, with a good batch of showers event further west into
Oklahoma. Have increased PoPs tomorrow morning to account for this
lingering shower activity. Rainfall totals so far range from 1.5
inches across parts of central Missouri to trace amounts in south
central Illinois.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2015

Expect rain to continue over the area this evening as strong mid
level ascent ahead of upper low currently over the central Plains
will be found over strong low level moisture convergence.  70kt low
level jet continues to bring plenty of Gulf moisture with the RAP
depicting PWATs now near 1.8 inches this afternoon.  Latest runs of
the CAMS show that the steady rain will cover much of the CWA this
evening before diminishing from southwest to northeast after
midnight as the moisture convergence axis shifts eastward.

Some of the momentum of the low level jet will likely also transport
downward to the surface tonight causing windy conditions.  While it
does not appear at this time we will reach advisory criteria,
sustained southerly winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts will be
possible.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

ECMWF and NAM are in good agreement that a negatively tilted trough
will rotate around the base of the upper low on Monday morning. This
should bring an end to the showers once it moves through our area
and subsidence develops in behind the trough.  Upper low will
quickly move off into the Great Lakes late Monday and Monday night
as a shortwave ridge moves across the area early on Tuesday. Still
looks like there will be a strong upper low move from the central
high Plains into the upper Midwest at midweek which will cause a
cold front to move across the area on Wednesday.  Available moisture
and forcing ahead of this front still looks limited, so will only
maintain low chances of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain or fall slightly on Monday with the clouds
and cold air advection.  Highs on Tuesday will warm back up closer
to the warmer GFS MOS temperatures before they fall on Wednesday
behind the cold front.

(Thursday-Sunday)

ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Mean are in pretty good agreement that
longwave trough will move across Missouri and Illinois on Friday
before upper flow begins to become more zonal next weekend.  While
there is no QPF depicted in the models, the cyclonic curvature would
suggest there should be at least partly cloudy skies on Friday
before subsidence sets in over the weekend.  GEFS mean and ECMWF
850mb temps are still going down into the -5 to -15 range by Friday
night which means it will finally feel like December.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Sun Dec 13 2015

Expect RA to continue thru the night. After the RA shield passes
NE of the terminal, expect an area of SHRA to move thru the region
late tonight and into Mon morning. Expect mainly low MVFR
conditions within the main RA shield, but some pockets of IFR are
possible. With sunset, these pockets may expand, but will need to
monitor trends. Also expect winds to pick up late tonight and thru
Mon morning. Going wind forecast may not be high enuf, but will
wait for more guidance tonight. Expect MVFR cigs to persist thru
Mon, perhaps becoming VFR Mon evening.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
336 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

BRITT