Areal Flood Warning 34, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
525 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS WEEKEND)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY WAS SINKING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOSH BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALOFT, A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH MOST
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FORCING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY INVOF THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY ALSO SERVE TO FOCUS
SH/TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THE WEEKEND.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MO/IL ON MONDAY NIGHT,
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY. LLJ INTERACTION WITH
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LSX CWA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MOST ACTIVE WX NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN
IL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
THRU THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOWER CIGS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT COU AND THE STL METRO SITES THRU MUCH OF THURSDAY. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK N DURING THE
VALID PERIOD.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-030945-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
436 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR
FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. MAJOR FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GRAFTON THROUGH
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR
FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

KANOFSKY