Areal Flood Warning 31, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS DIMINISHING, SO MOST PLACES TO JUST SEE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN
NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO FIREUP, MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MO NEAR
SURFACE LOW THEN TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXACT TRACK OF COMPLEX OF STORMS HARD TO PIN DOWN, BUT STILL FEEL
THAT BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MO. COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES, SO
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS EXPECTED AND KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING TIL 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, LOWS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ON THURSDAY, FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA AND
REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

THEN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SO WILL SEE OFF AND ON CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOST ACTIVE WX EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR REGION
THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CIGS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
DOWN. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT
PREFER TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BEFORE INCLUDING. OTHERWISE,
VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSRA WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY
     MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-
     JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
     REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
403 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA.

POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR
FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. MAJOR FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GRAFTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR
FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. MAJOR FLOODING IS
FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GRAFTON THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
946 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             1 N OLYMPIAN VILLAGE    38.15N  90.46W
07/01/2015  E0.70 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1002 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE COLUMBIA          38.93N  92.31W
07/01/2015                   BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SKYLIGHTS BROKEN AT WALMART JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBIA WITH
            WATER FLOODING STORE.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1010 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. LOUIS               38.64N  90.24W
07/01/2015                   ST. LOUIS CITY     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ONTU TWO HOMES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1013 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. LOUIS               38.64N  90.24W
07/01/2015                   ST. LOUIS CITY     MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF LINDELL AND UNION.

&&

GOSSELIN

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