Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

Warm front is lifting north through Kentucky this afternoon, with
the transition underway from the steady rain that we had this
morning to a more convective regime. Upper wave will lift NE across
the Ohio Valley, with a surface low over southern Illinois lifting up
the Wabash Valley. Should have well over 50 percent coverage of
T-storms as we head into the evening, then shutting down quickly
once the upper wave is to our north and east. Will carry high POPs
for an early evening period, with lower POPs to follow.

Could have a few strong storms through early evening. Just enough
deep-layer shear and mid-level wind to support marginally severe
wind and hail. Much of the region dodged the heavy rain potential
with this morning's precip shield, but some totals near 1 inch have
been observed west of I-65. Any of the stronger thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, especially in these areas, could cause flooding
issues.

Will remain quite unsettled overnight into Monday as a series of
disturbances will swing through a broad full-latitude trof. Main
limiting factor in POPs is whether the next rounds of showers and
storms will be tonight or Monday. Cold front swings through during
the day, with POPs tapering quickly behind it. very little diurnal
recovery expected in temps, and southern Indiana may realize daytime
highs in the morning. Monday night appears dry with temps actually
slightly below normal as a much cooler and drier air mass spills in.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

Overall mid-level pattern in extended forecast period looks to be
somewhat amplified and blocky across North America. Ohio Valley
should be under general west or northwest mid-level flow most of the
period between a closed low over the Great Lakes which will progress
into southeast Canada and northern New England, and ridging well to
our west. Within this pattern, a few embedded weak shortwaves should
ride east or southeast toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This
could produce a couple episodes of showers, but no particularly
heavy or persistent rain is expected at this time in the extended.

In the dailies, Tuesday will start off mostly clear but models agree
that the approach of one such shortwave will cause clouds to
increase in the afternoon, with a chance of showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms by late afternoon into evening over south-central
IN and north-central KY. This wave will move ESE Tuesday night over
our area with some showers.

From Wednesday onward, model forecast agreement and confidence
becomes a bit more tenuous, as would be expected in the forecast
synoptic pattern. On Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will move
through, which could spark scattered showers, mainly over central
KY. Thereafter, another impulse or two could bring a chance of
showers about Friday night and/or Saturday, but again, nothing too
heavy or long-lasting is expected based on current projections.

Normal high temperatures right now are in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Forecast max temperatures
for mid this week through next weekend generally will average at or
below normal in most areas, with perhaps only lower to mid 60s late
week into next weekend. Low temperatures will be cool, especially
late week and next weekend with around 40 to the mid 40s, and even
some upper 30s in cooler valleys.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

Rain shield ahead of a surface warm front is lifting northward
across Kentucky. Precip has just shut off at BWG, with a wind shift
to SW, while SDF and LEX are still out of the ESE. Fuel-alternate
MVFR conditions pretty much across the board. Main challenge for the
afternoon is the impact of any convection that re-develops in the
warm sector.

Satellite imagery shows enough enhancement in the cu over western
Tennessee to suggest there will be some destabilization, but still
expect showers and storms to be spotty in nature. Will hold on to
VCSH for much of the afternoon, but also include a narrow window of
VCTS/CB late in the afternoon as an upper-level shortwave lifts NNE
through the Ohio Valley. Ceilings will run high-end MVFR for most of
the afternoon, with fuel-alternate conditions in and around
thunderstorms.

Plenty of moisture around tonight but SW winds will keep the
boundary layer mixed, so will stick with MVFR conditions. Another
wave aloft will push a weak cold front through Monday morning. Will
carry VCSH if not VCTS as this disturbance swings through.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-201945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 /238 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
607 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

INZ090-KYZ024-025-028-029-045-053-192235-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-LARUE KY-MEADE
KY-NELSON KY-
607 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 606 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
BRANDENBURG TO HODGENVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HODGENVILLE...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  MAPLES CORNER AND RINEYVILLE...
  GARRETT AND BUCK GROVE...
  ROANOKE AND RED HILL...
  BOOTH AND HUGHES LANDING...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 105 AND 94.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 136 AND 137.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 8604 3775 8554 3752 8578 3777 8624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 215DEG 28KT 3779 8616 3757 8581

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
515 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

KYZ077-078-081-082-192245-
ADAIR KY-CLINTON KY-CUMBERLAND KY-RUSSELL KY-
515 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
BURKESVILLE TO BURKESVILLE TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CELINA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JAMESTOWN...
  BURKESVILLE...
  MODOC AND INROAD...
  RIBBON AND HOBART...
  WILLIS CREEK AND MONTPELIER...
  WAGO AND OLGA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8546 3689 8543 3719 8504 3706 8495
      3689 8501 3686 8506 3683 8506 3681 8503
      3661 8537 3661 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 220DEG 34KT 3695 8532 3677 8531
          3661 8537

KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
633 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

KYZ036-040-041-048-192305-
FAYETTE KY-JESSAMINE KY-SCOTT KY-WOODFORD KY-
633 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 632 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF VERSAILLES...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.  THIS STORM IS ALSO
EXHIBITING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEXINGTON...
  FAYETTE MALL...
  U K ARBORETUM...
  DUNBAR HIGH SCHOOL...
  BRYAN STATION...
  PINCKARD AND KEENE...
  LITTLE TEXAS AND FROGTOWN...
  BLUE GRASS AIRPORT AND BEAUMONT PARK...
  VILEY AND HOLIDAY HILLS...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
69 AND 81.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
110 AND 126.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 68
AND 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 8473 3798 8481 3827 8449 3814 8437
      3812 8438 3808 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 228DEG 28KT 3795 8472

KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

KYZ041-048-049-057-192325-
CLARK KY-FAYETTE KY-JESSAMINE KY-MADISON KY-
653 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 650 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF NICHOLASVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  WINCHESTER...
  CADENTOWN...
  CUZICK AND LOGANA...
  SPEARS AND VALLEY VIEW...
  COLETOWN AND EAST HICKMAN...
  ATHENS...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
87 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
104 AND 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 8449 3777 8454 3775 8454 3774 8456
      3779 8462 3779 8461 3810 8437 3808 8433
      3809 8432 3807 8428 3807 8426 3796 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 220DEG 28KT 3780 8451

KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

KYZ036-037-041>043-192350-
BOURBON KY-FAYETTE KY-HARRISON KY-NICHOLAS KY-SCOTT KY-
719 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 717 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF GEORGETOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CYNTHIANA...
  JACKSONVILLE AND BRENTSVILLE...
  EWALT CROSSROADS AND KISERTON...
  SHAWHAN AND LAIR...
  RUDDELS MILLS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 8425 3836 8403 3813 8444 3821 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 222DEG 25KT 3821 8441

KD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
721 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

KYZ056-057-066-067-192350-
CASEY KY-GARRARD KY-LINCOLN KY-MADISON KY-
721 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 720 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF STANFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  STANFORD...
  LANCASTER...
  WALNUT FLAT AND CRAB ORCHARD...
  PREACHERSVILLE AND GILBERT...
  MANSE AND POINT LEAVELL...
  PAINT LICK AND BUGGYTOWN...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
76 AND 77.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 8426 3753 8434 3747 8438 3748 8444
      3733 8450 3733 8452 3735 8455 3734 8457
      3724 8471 3724 8473 3745 8480 3772 8448
      3753 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 225DEG 42KT 3743 8464

KD