Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

Warm front is lifting north through Kentucky this afternoon, with
the transition underway from the steady rain that we had this
morning to a more convective regime. Upper wave will lift NE across
the Ohio Valley, with a surface low over southern Illinois lifting up
the Wabash Valley. Should have well over 50 percent coverage of
T-storms as we head into the evening, then shutting down quickly
once the upper wave is to our north and east. Will carry high POPs
for an early evening period, with lower POPs to follow.

Could have a few strong storms through early evening. Just enough
deep-layer shear and mid-level wind to support marginally severe
wind and hail. Much of the region dodged the heavy rain potential
with this morning's precip shield, but some totals near 1 inch have
been observed west of I-65. Any of the stronger thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, especially in these areas, could cause flooding
issues.

Will remain quite unsettled overnight into Monday as a series of
disturbances will swing through a broad full-latitude trof. Main
limiting factor in POPs is whether the next rounds of showers and
storms will be tonight or Monday. Cold front swings through during
the day, with POPs tapering quickly behind it. very little diurnal
recovery expected in temps, and southern Indiana may realize daytime
highs in the morning. Monday night appears dry with temps actually
slightly below normal as a much cooler and drier air mass spills in.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

Overall mid-level pattern in extended forecast period looks to be
somewhat amplified and blocky across North America. Ohio Valley
should be under general west or northwest mid-level flow most of the
period between a closed low over the Great Lakes which will progress
into southeast Canada and northern New England, and ridging well to
our west. Within this pattern, a few embedded weak shortwaves should
ride east or southeast toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This
could produce a couple episodes of showers, but no particularly
heavy or persistent rain is expected at this time in the extended.

In the dailies, Tuesday will start off mostly clear but models agree
that the approach of one such shortwave will cause clouds to
increase in the afternoon, with a chance of showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms by late afternoon into evening over south-central
IN and north-central KY. This wave will move ESE Tuesday night over
our area with some showers.

From Wednesday onward, model forecast agreement and confidence
becomes a bit more tenuous, as would be expected in the forecast
synoptic pattern. On Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will move
through, which could spark scattered showers, mainly over central
KY. Thereafter, another impulse or two could bring a chance of
showers about Friday night and/or Saturday, but again, nothing too
heavy or long-lasting is expected based on current projections.

Normal high temperatures right now are in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Forecast max temperatures
for mid this week through next weekend generally will average at or
below normal in most areas, with perhaps only lower to mid 60s late
week into next weekend. Low temperatures will be cool, especially
late week and next weekend with around 40 to the mid 40s, and even
some upper 30s in cooler valleys.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2015

Rain shield ahead of a surface warm front is lifting northward
across Kentucky. Precip has just shut off at BWG, with a wind shift
to SW, while SDF and LEX are still out of the ESE. Fuel-alternate
MVFR conditions pretty much across the board. Main challenge for the
afternoon is the impact of any convection that re-develops in the
warm sector.

Satellite imagery shows enough enhancement in the cu over western
Tennessee to suggest there will be some destabilization, but still
expect showers and storms to be spotty in nature. Will hold on to
VCSH for much of the afternoon, but also include a narrow window of
VCTS/CB late in the afternoon as an upper-level shortwave lifts NNE
through the Ohio Valley. Ceilings will run high-end MVFR for most of
the afternoon, with fuel-alternate conditions in and around
thunderstorms.

Plenty of moisture around tonight but SW winds will keep the
boundary layer mixed, so will stick with MVFR conditions. Another
wave aloft will push a weak cold front through Monday morning. Will
carry VCSH if not VCTS as this disturbance swings through.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-201945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
338 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 /238 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/TWF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>