Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
531 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 530 PM EDT Thu June 25 2015

...Severe Threat Continues...

Organized line of wind producing storms that organized over western
KY is now moving into the Louisville Metro area. Meanwhile, more N/S
oriented line that developed to our west is converging on the same
area. These storms are on the northern fringe of the best
instability axis and will likely begin to turn more east over the
next hour or two. A damaging wind threat with bowing segments will
then quickly spread east along and on either side of the I-64
corridor through the evening. At this point, the supercell and
assoicated tornado threat is pretty low but cannot rule out a very
brief spin-up with a meso-vortice. Environment is much more
favorable for damaging wind and transition to a heavy rain threat
later in the evening. Heavy rain threat may end up further south
than previous forecast, with southern IN getting gapped between best
dynamics north and best moisture/instability south.

Further south near Lake Cumberland, the atmosphere is much more
unstable however lacks as much shear for organization so will keep
storm mode more pulsy or multicell. Some hail may still be possible.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2015

...Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall Expected This Evening...

Clusters of disorganized storms have developed across SW Kentucky on
remnant outflow over the past couple hours. These storms will work
NE about 30 knots over the next few hours, gradually entering a more
favorable shear environment for better organization. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #360 will be in effect until 03Z. Meanwhile,
storms look to organize ahead of a digging shortwave trough and
associated surface low along the NW edge of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #359 and push east into our CWA after 4 PM EDT.

At the moment, vertical shear profiles indicate veered but pretty
weak flow through the lowest levels so still not impressed with the
initial supercell threat. However, as we move into the evening hours
flow should improve across our northern CWA, increasing the threat
for a few supercells, mainly closer to the warm front over central
IN. Best tornado threats were updated on latest SPC outlook and like
the call mentioning mainly our northern third of the CWA. Can't
completely rule out an isolated tornado threat across the rest of
the CWA given any local boundaries (like the one evident on visible
between heaviest rainfall axis last night).

Main threats will be pockets of damaging wind with main storm mode a
broken line of bowing segments and multicell clusters. Hail is also
a threat, especially with any supercells. Additionally, locally
heavy rain and excessive lightning will accompany all storms. Will
keep Flash Flood Watch as is, with most concern in areas that saw
heavy rain last night.

Storms push east across our CWA mainly between now and 10 PM EDT. A
secondary push of moderte showers and storms may then develop
overnight across southern KY ahead of another mid level disturbance.
Severe is not expected with these storms.

Upper system and its surface low will track across Indiana through
the day on Saturday with lingering showers and possibly a rumble of
thunder. Small hail may not be out of the question given the low
freezing leveles and steep low and mid level lapse rates. Coverage
will be isolated to widely scattered. Highs will be much cooler in
the low and mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2015

Broad upper trof over the eastern CONUS will dominate much of next
week. Shortwave ridging through a deep layer will give us a mostly
clear and pleasantly cool Saturday night and Sunday, with temps
between 5 and 10 degrees below climo and low dewpoints.

By Monday another upper shortwave will dig through the trof, and a
surface cold front will push into the Ohio Valley. Will ramp POPs up
Sunday night, to a high-end chance for most of the area on Monday.

Upper flow gradually flattens out over the remainder of the week,
but subtle shortwaves will continue to move through the area and
interact with a stalled and weakening front. Therefore we expect a
fairly unsettled pattern with isolated/scattered T-storm coverage
each day. Temps normal or above by night, and just below normal by
day.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2015

VFR will prevail the rest of this early and mid afternoon with light
and variable winds and Sct cu development.

As we move into the early evening, scattered to numerous strong
thunderstorms are expected to organize to our west ahead of an
approaching strong upper disturbance and its associated shortwave.
These thunderstorms are expected to impact all TAF sites with
anticipated timing/impacts below:

SDF: Best timing looks to be between 5 and 9 PM EDT for strongest
storms, however T-storm threat will likely linger until around
Midnight EDT. Have included mention of 3 SM visibility, with periods
of visibility below 2 miles. Strong gusty winds will also be
possible in any t-storm.

LEX: Best timing looks to be between 7 and 10 PM EDT for strongest
storms, however T-storm threat will likely linger until the pre-dawn
hours. Same impacts as SDF.

BWG: Expect storm coverage to be a little more scattered down south
with VCTS as early as 3 PM CDT and best coverage between 6 PM and
Midnight. Same impacts as SDF/LEX.

Post storm winds will be variable through the pre-dawn hours before
a cold frontal passage toward dawn. Some MVFR ceilings will likely
hang around in the post storm environment as well.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-078.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
214 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-
078-271815-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN
214 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015 /114 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT.  NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY
TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING...IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT...A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ061-062-070>076-081-082-271815-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
114 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT.  NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY
WILL INTENSIFY TODAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING...IN ADDITION
TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT...A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

BJS/RAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
422 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

KYZ066-067-077-078-081-082-262150-
ADAIR KY-CASEY KY-CLINTON KY-CUMBERLAND KY-LINCOLN KY-RUSSELL KY-
422 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SCIENCE HILL TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF BURKESVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JAMESTOWN...
  COLUMBIA...
  BURKESVILLE...
  CHANCE AND INROAD...
  FLATWOOD AND FAIRPLAY...
  GADBERRY AND BRYAN...
  OLGA AND CROCUS...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE CUMBERLAND (NUNN) PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 49 AND 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 8535 3709 8548 3721 8516 3740 8448
      3737 8448 3734 8452 3734 8457 3712 8490
      3705 8490 3699 8483 3695 8490 3696 8494
      3692 8495 3686 8506 3683 8506 3679 8502
      3678 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 231DEG 14KT 3711 8483 3688 8527

AMS