Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEVADA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH
ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX NEAR
-4, BUT AGAIN SHEAR IS MODEST WHICH WILL KEEP STORM ORGANIZATION
IN CHECK. STILL, STORMS ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, AND
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS, AND LIFT FROM APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE IN
CALIFORNIA, WILL KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT STRONGEST STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 60
MPH.

TONIGHT...570 DM PACIFIC LOW, VERY UNUSUAL FOR JULY, MOVES TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MORNING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SKY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, ACROSS NORTH/NW
NEVADA. OVERNIGHT RUMBLES OF THUNDER MOST LIKELY IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA OVERNIGHT, WITH PW DOWN TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCH SOUTH OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 50 BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES...MAINLY 50S, WITH LOWER 60S UNDER THE
CLOUDS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND UPPER 40S IN THE SOME OF THE
CENTRAL NEVADA VALLEYS WITH THE DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO NEVADA DURING THE DAY, TRIGGERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. 12/18Z NAM MODEL RUNS, WHICH DID AN
EXCELLENT JOB WITH STORM EVOLUTION TODAY, SHOW STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG A
WINNEMUCCA-AUSTIN-MANHATTAN LINE. DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AS
LOW APPROACHES, SO AGAIN SOME STORMS WILL AGAIN APPROACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS. COVERAGE OF STORMS MUCH LESS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA.

THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED MILD, WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA,
SO A CLOUDY SKY WILL CONTINUE WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS SOME, BUT
LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE ANOTHER CROP OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOL TROUGH ALOFT INTERACTING WITH JULY
SUNSHINE, STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES...VERY MILD AND PLEASANT, WITH MOST VALLEYS
HOLDING IN THE 70S, WARMEST VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 80S.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL CLIP NORTHWEST NV OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR NORTHERN NV. ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA COAST MONDAY
THEN INTO NV TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NV, PRIMARILY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV THROUGH 02Z AFFECTING ALL TAF TERMINAL EXCEPT KTPH. MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EXPECTED. SMALL FIRE
IGNITIONS ARE LIKELY. STORMS WILL TREND DRIER ACROSS THE SE FWZ
THURSDAY AS PW FALLS TO NEAR 0.50 INCH.

STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455 AND 457 ON
THURSDAY, AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. MIN RH WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, NEAR 20%.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/91/91/99

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

NVZ034-038-039-082230-
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-
230 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
PDT...

AT 228 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RUBY VALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE
CREEKS TO RISE IN THE CANYONS OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RUBY VALLEY...SECRET PASS AND STAR
VALLEY AND STATE ROUTE 229 NEAR THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 11519 4069 11545 4105 11530 4097 11502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 200DEG 18KT 4075 11529

RLC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

NVZ034-036-038-039-082230-
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
246 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EUREKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM PDT...

AT 244 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR ELKO AND SPRING CREEK. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED. FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

MOVE INDOORS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES....

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKO...RYNDON...SPRING CREEK...SOUTH FORK...JIGGS...LAMOILLE...LEE...
HARRISON PASS...EMIGRANT MINE...HALLECK...LAMOILLE CANYON...ADOBE
SUMMIT...LAMOILLE SUMMIT AND FRANKLIN LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES OTHER LOCATIONS
MILE MARKER 286 CARLIN CANYON...MILE MARKER 293 HUNTER...MILE MARKER
312 OSINO...MILE MARKER 317 ELBURZ...AND MILE MARKER 322 SR 229.

LAT...LON 4026 11541 4053 11618 4107 11581 4093 11520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 200DEG 61KT 4072 11584

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
319 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

NVZ031-033-034-039-082315-
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY NV-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
319 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM PDT...

AT 318 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WENDOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST WENDOVER...WELLS...OASIS...PEQUOP SUMMIT...RUBY VALLEY...CLOVER
VALLEY...MOOR SUMMIT...SILVER ZONE PASS AND WHITE HORSE PASS.

THIS INCLUDES OTHER LOCATIONS
MILE MARKER 365 INDEPENDENCE VALLEY...MILE MARKER 388 SHAFTER PEAK...
MILE MARKER 399 PILOT PEAK...AND MILE MARKER 407 OLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 11407 4071 11523 4126 11496 4085 11404
      4031 11404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 226DEG 17KT 4054 11417

RLC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

NVZ031-034-036-038-039-082315-
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
326 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL EUREKA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ELKO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM PDT...

AT 324 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR NORTH AREA MINE TO ELKO TO SPRING CREEK AND
LAMOILLE...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH AND WINDS TO 55 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.
TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKO...LAMOILLE...LEE...SPRING CREEK...SOUTH FORK...LAMOILLE
SUMMIT...LAMOILLE CANYON AND ADOBE SUMMIT.

THIS INCLUDES MILE MARKER 293 HUNTER AND MILE MARKER 312 OSINO.

LAT...LON 4070 11519 4046 11558 4089 11626 4112 11593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 129DEG 189KT 4105 11613

TURNER

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