Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
358 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK...PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD...AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A BUSIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND THE NOSE OF 250MB JET STREAK
MOVES INTO NV. PWATS DECREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL EXPECTING
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. STORM MOTIONS WILL STILL BE RATHER
SLOW...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT A COUPLE OF LOCALIZED EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY IS MODEST...SO A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF LANDER/EUREKA
COUNTIES. A STRONG VORT MAX WORKS ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY...INCREASING SHEAR SLIGHTLY. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST LATE
INTO THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
ALL NIGHT IN FAR NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN NEVADA.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. ENOUGH DRY AIR
WILL WORK IN TO LIMIT COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD FURTHER INCREASES...BUT THE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WHERE IT IS DRIER.
STILL COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA...WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. ALL MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OPENING AND SLIDING ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE BEST
ACTIVITY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY IN THE
CENTRAL PARTS...LIKE NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AS
ENERGY SPLITS...WITH SOME ENERGY HANGING BACK WITH A CIRCULATION
POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECTING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE DIMINISHED FROM PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW 80S. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SAVE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS TO A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO MOISTURE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PATTERN.
 &&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 30KT AS WELL AS REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STORMS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEVADA WILL BE HYBRID/ON THE DRY SIDE. PWATS WILL FALL TO 0.5 TO
0.7...SO COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AS WELL. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEVADA FIRE ZONES THURSDAY AND WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON RH LEVELS WILL FALL AS WELL...DUE TO
THE SW FLOW OVER THE SIERRA MTNS. FURTHER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAIR/GOOD...SLIGHTLY DIPPING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA LATER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

94/86/86/94

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1143 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

NVZ031-081915-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
1143 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM PDT...

AT 1143 AM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER TUSCARORA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUSCARORA.

LAT...LON 4124 11613 4127 11632 4139 11630 4136 11608
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 189DEG 39KT 4135 11622

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1147 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

NVZ037-081930-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
1147 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EUREKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM PDT...

AT 1146 AM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER HICKISON SUMMIT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKISON SUMMIT.
U.S. HIGHWAY 50 OVER EASTERN LANDER COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3940 11659 3937 11682 3956 11691 3961 11660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 172DEG 50KT 3947 11672

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1211 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

NVZ037-082000-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
1211 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LANDER COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM PDT...

AT 1210 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW PASS SUMMIT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW PASS SUMMIT.

LAT...LON 3943 11767 3943 11764 3946 11766 3949 11760
      3952 11759 3953 11749 3956 11748 3965 11748
      3939 11744 3936 11767 3938 11770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 170DEG 56KT 3946 11758

TURNER

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