Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW. ALOFT...THE NEXT PERTUBATION HAS
PRODUCED YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS NE TX...MOVING SE AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING NW LA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LINE HAS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO W LA BY 8 AM. OTHER THAN THE
HRRR...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MUCH AT ALL
LET ALONE IN THE CORRECT PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR STILL TOO FAR
NORTH...KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST NORTH. SO...HAD TO MANUALLY CREATE
QPF/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING TO SHOW REALITY...AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN MCS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY IT LEAVES BEHIND ACROSS INLAND SE
TX/C LA WILL BE THE ADDITIONAL FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT 40-50% ACROSS THIS REGION AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THU INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...TO
KEEP 30-50% COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY MCS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD
IS SUBJECT TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. DON'T REALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MIXED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  70  86  70 /  50  30  50  20
LCH  87  73  85  73 /  40  20  40  20
LFT  87  71  86  71 /  50  20  50  20
BPT  86  74  85  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-
073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-281100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
340 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL AFFECT AREAS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY DAYBREAK INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING FROM I-10 NORTHWARD. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TXZ180-201-215-259>262-270930-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN JASPER-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN
NEWTON-HARDIN-TYLER-
402 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND WESTERN NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 401 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONVERSE TO NEAR ROCKLAND TO NEAR
LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE PARK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...LUMBERTON...JASPER...SILSBEE...WOODVILLE...NEWTON...
KIRBYVILLE...KOUNTZE...SOUR LAKE...COLMESNEIL...CHESTER...FRED...
SARATOGA...EVADALE...CALL...WARREN...WILDWOOD...THICKET...EBENEZER
AND BUNA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3048 9473 3049 9454 3101 9465 3106 9456
      3103 9447 3115 9394 3117 9369 3026 9378
      3025 9412 3017 9412 3019 9420 3011 9436
      3011 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 336DEG 34KT 3173 9381 3102 9434 3062 9503

K. KUYPER