Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 500MB LEVEL REVEALS A TYPICAL AUGUST PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN COAST. THE LARGEST HEIGHT RISES
OVER NORTH AMERICA WERE LOCATED NEAR THE TANANA BASIN...EXTENDING
EAST TO YUKON. HEIGHT FALLS OF 50DM WERE ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
HUDSON BAY. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED JUST TO
THE LEE OF THE CALIFORNIA LOW...WHICH NOSES NORTH ALONG THE PAC
NW COAST. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE INDICATES A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE WEST. AS OF 16Z...WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH NEAR MERRIMAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS TONIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
NEAR VALENTINE SOUTHWEST TO THE HYANNIS AREA...THEN SOUTH TO THE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED MOISTURE
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CURRENT LAPS
SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG NEAR THE THEDFORD AREA.
SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELD INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH FINE
LINE EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR THE IMPERIAL AREA. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION EXPECTED BY 4 PM CDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BY 14/00Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WITH THE SEVERE IMPACTS OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION...WITH THE UPPER
SUPPORT MOVING EAST THIS EVENING SO THE NAM SOLUTION GENERALLY
FOLLOWED.

OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST FOR QUIET
DAY. TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE PAC NW TOWARD
THE THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEKEND. THE WAVE WILL
BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY FORCE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS REMAIN FIXED ON A
SOLUTION WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPS
SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION. DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR YIELDING UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN
INCREASING LLJ MAY ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LESS OWING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PAC
NW. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PROCEED TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE
PATTERN UNSETTLED FOR THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE TROUGH WILL PLAY OUT. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...THUS THE CR_BLENDED POP
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WAS LEFT LARGELY AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE DRIFTING SOUTH THIS
EVENING. THEY MIGHT CLIP THE KLBF TERMINAL HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT
IS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY KEEP THEM EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
INCLUDED A BRIEF VCSH AND TEMP OF GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE NEAR TERM AMENDMENT. KVTN LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE
ACTIVITY AND WENT DRY FOR THE TAF...HOWEVER THEY COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND THE TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR TOMORROW. WINDS DO PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE SOUTH...AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-142000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
256 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015 /156 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR VALENTINE SOUTHWEST TO
HYANNIS AND SOUTH TO THE IMPERIAL AREA. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SLOW MOTION COULD PRODUCE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE IMPACTS COULD
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 9 PM CDT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
710 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             5 NW HI 83 MILE MARKER  41.79N 100.58W
08/13/2015  E0.88 INCH       THOMAS             NE   PUBLIC

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL WITH 50 MPH.

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
722 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 NNW STAPLETON        41.65N 100.61W
08/13/2015                   LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST. NUMEROUS 6 TO 8 INCH LONG
            TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
724 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       19 S AINSWORTH          42.27N 99.86W
08/13/2015  E4.50 INCH       BROWN              NE   PUBLIC

            4.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITHIN THE HOUR AS STORM PASSED
            OVER.

&&

JGOMEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
730 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S THEDFORD            41.91N 100.57W
08/13/2015  E60.00 MPH       THOMAS             NE   PUBLIC

&&

JGOMEZ

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