Frost Advisory 2, NWS North Platte, NE

191 
WWUS73 KLBF 121331
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
831 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

...FREEZE WARNING CANCELED...

.TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT...THUS THE
FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELED.

NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-056-057-094-121445-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150512T1400Z/
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-GARDEN-GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-ARTHUR-
MCPHERSON-LOGAN-DEUEL-KEITH-WESTERN CHERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...VALENTINE...
OSHKOSH...HYANNIS...MULLEN...THEDFORD...ARTHUR...TRYON...
STAPLETON...CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA...CODY...MERRIMAN...
KILGORE
831 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 /731 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2015/

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS CANCELED THE
FREEZE WARNING. 

.TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT...THE FREEZE
WARNING IS CANCELED.

$$

NEZ006>010-026>029-038-058-059-069>071-121445-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150512T1400Z/
KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-
CUSTER-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPRINGVIEW...SPENCER...AINSWORTH...
BASSETT...ONEILL...DUNNING...TAYLOR...BURWELL...BARTLETT...
BROKEN BOW...GRANT...NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL...HAYES CENTER...
CURTIS...EUSTIS
831 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015 /731 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2015/

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS CANCELED THE
FROST ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT...THUS THE FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

$$

JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
121 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS STILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA. COLD AIR WRAPPED
INTO THE SYSTEM HAS LOWER TEMPS TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. STILL A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS HAVE REMAIN GUSTY. WINDS HAVE
HELPED KEEP TEMPS UP AS DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

UPDATE TO LET THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO CLIMB AND THE THREAT FOR FROST HAS
ENDED. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH
SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH.

NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA IN THE LOWER 30S WITH A FEW MID
30S...HOWEVER DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. PROBABLY NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH FROST DEVELOP DUE TO THE 20 TO
35 MPH WINDS...HOWEVER IN SHELTERED AREAS WHERE LIGHT WINDS
EXIST...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST.

BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH EAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTER DRIFTS OVERHEAD
AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY FALL OFF
AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPS TO PLUMMET AS WINDS DIE OFF. FAVORING COLDER
TEMPS IS THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEW PTS IN THE 20S.
HOWEVER THE GROUND IS VERY MOIST WHICH WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIVE
PROPERTY OF THE SFC AND THE HIGH SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
THE COLDEST PART OF THE NIGHT. THAT SAID...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THOUGHT THIS WOULD BE THE LEAST
CONFUSING TO THE PUBLIC. COLDEST TEMPS /MID TO UPPER 20S/ OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA WHERE STILL HAVE THE SNOWPACK. ELSEWHERE LOWER TO MID
30S. ALSO WITH THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE SFC HIGH...TEMPS LIKELY FALL
TO LOWEST POINT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
UNTIL SUNRISE. THUS AREAS THAT DO FREEZE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL
HOURS OF FROSTY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES TODAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR RETURNS AND REPORTS HAVE REMAINED IN S
DAKOTA. THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THE NEAR TERM MODELS DO
ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE
WILL MEASURE...CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME LOW POPS NEAR THE BORDER.
ALSO INCLUDED A BUFFER OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY
FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS. IN FACT A RAPID RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THE NAM MODEL PROJECTING 850 MB DEW
PTS OF 10 TO 12C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CURRENT COLD FRONT ONLY
MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND NOT INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RAPID NORTHWARD RETURN OF QUALITY GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
PLAINS.

DURING THIS TIME...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ALONG
THE WEST COAST. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO HAVE A NEGATIVE TILT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAW
MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET GIVES
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO
LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

THE LEAD WAVE QUICKLY PASSES AND MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY...WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES PROJECT THIS TO MOVE EAST AS A CLOSED SYSTEM
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS PUTS OUR
AREA IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
STRONG...AND AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT...WHICH WILL DICTATE SEVERE STORM PLACEMENT.
LATER FORECASTS WILL REFINE BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER EITHER IN OR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK ON THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INCLUDING DEUEL...KEITH...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS DUE TO SNOW
MELT RUNOFF IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. LATEST RIVER
FORECAST PROJECTIONS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL INTO RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT WILL IMPACT UPSTREAM
FLOWS ON THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER. RIVER FORECASTS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AND UPDATED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ004>006-008-009-022>028-035>038-056>059-
069>071-094.

&&

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
216 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-121930-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
216 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 /116 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO STAPLETON TO OGALLALA. SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT FROST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD FROST WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH MID MORNING.

ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MP