Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
808 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN IMPACTING OUR AREA OVER
THE PAST HALF AN HOUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS
LINE IS MOVING OVER AN AREA THAT WAS HEAVILY IMPACTED YESTERDAY
AND OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT SO FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE LINE PUSHING SEWD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO FRESHENED UP TEMPS PER MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

ASIDE FROM A FEW ONGOING HYDRO ISSUES...ALL IS CALM AROUND EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR AREA AFTER 5 PM...AND THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS BETWEEN 630 AND 700 PM THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OHIO AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN
RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. ONCE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING MCS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO SUSTAIN THE APPROACHING STORMS...AND MAKE
THEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS CLUSTER
STORMS...AS MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT...AND TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ACCOUNTING FOR
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS AND THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH
KENTUCKY TO END THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RUNS EAST ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGES...RUNNING GENERALLY ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE PASSES...WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN RIDGE BUILD MORE
EFFECTIVELY INTO THE STATE HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT
NECESSARY TO SHUT DOWN CONVECTION...THOUGH. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE SPAWNED THE ORGANIZED AND
DEADLY SYSTEMS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH
OF THE CWA TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MONDAY...THOUGH...AS ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH SINKS OUT OF CANADA SWEEPING ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THAN THE GFS...DIPPING IT WELL SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS PREFERRED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED
BY A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID SETUP FOR
EAST KENTUCKY LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AND FADES OUT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LATE DAY CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE
WEEKEND...AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...
THE HEAT WILL BUILD WITH LOWER 90S A GOOD BET FOR MANY PLACES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS...STILL LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WHILE THE HEAT REMAINS WITH MORE LOW 90S ON TAP. THE
BETTER STORM CHANCES SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANYING THAT
FRONT. LOOK FOR HEAT INDICES TO PEAK BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POP AND SKY GRIDS TO EMPHASIZE THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AS WELL AS A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT JUST MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS GIVEN THIS
CONTINUING HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

LINE OF RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY...PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SITES...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL BUT THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR VIS AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WITH MOST OF THE TAF SITES RECEIVING
RAINFALL TODAY...SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED BR WITH MVFR/IFR VIS AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BUT SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH
WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ANY STORM THIS EVENING BUT THEN
WILL CALM DOWN AND GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106>115-118>120-160200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-
KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...
LARGE HAIL...OR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KYZ079-080-083>088-116-117-160200-
PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-CLAY-
LESLIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...
LARGE HAIL...OR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

GREIF/AR/JP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
837 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SALYERSVILLE            37.75N 83.06W
07/14/2015                   MAGOFFIN           KY   PUBLIC

            ROCKHOUSE CREEK IS OUT OF BANKS WITH A CAR SUBMERGED AND
            ENCROACHING ON A BARN.

&&

JMWIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
840 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST LIBERTY            37.91N 83.27W
07/14/2015                   MORGAN             KY   PUBLIC

            WATER HAS SOURROUNDED HOUSE AND IS UP TO THE TOP OF THE
            STEPS AT THE FRONT DOOR.

&&

JMWIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SE LONDON             37.06N 83.99W
07/14/2015                   LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

TBREWER