Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015
Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Jackson, KY
NWS Jackson, KY issued this flash flood warning at Jul 5, 2015, 8:45 AM EDT for Menifee County, Montgomery County, Powell County, Kentucky. It was in force for 3 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 2015, 8:45 AM EDT (12:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 2015, 11:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, KY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Powell County, KY
The radar
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 9:42 AM EDT | FLOOD | 2 S Jeffersonville, KY | WATER OVER HWY 599 DUE TO STOPPED UP CULVERT BUT ROAD WAS PASSABLE. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1325 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -16 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -20 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
028
WGUS53 KJKL 051245
FFWJKL
KYC165-173-197-051545-
/O.NEW.KJKL.FF.W.0041.150705T1245Z-150705T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
845 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MENIFEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN POWELL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT
* AT 843 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN...ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STANTON...FRENCHBURG...JEFFERSONVILLE...CAMARGO...AND CLAY CITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
&&
LAT...LON 3802 8363 3786 8361 3785 8399 3789 8400
3790 8399 3792 8399 3793 8397 3800 8401
3802 8377 3801 8374 3803 8366
$$
ABE2 follow-up statements
843
WGUS73 KJKL 051351
FFSJKL
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
951 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
KYC165-173-197-051545-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150705T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-MONTGOMERY KY-
951 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR
WESTERN MENIFEE...NORTHERN POWELL AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...
AT 948 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND THIS IS LIKELY CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STANTON...FRENCHBURG...JEFFERSONVILLE...CAMARGO...AND CLAY CITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.
&&
LAT...LON 3802 8363 3786 8361 3785 8399 3789 8400
3790 8399 3792 8399 3793 8397 3800 8401
3802 8377 3801 8374 3803 8366
$$
ABE653
WGUS73 KJKL 051503
FFSJKL
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
KYC165-173-197-051512-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150705T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-MONTGOMERY KY-
1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN MENIFEE...NORTHERN POWELL AND
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT.
LAT...LON 3802 8363 3786 8361 3785 8399 3789 8400
3790 8399 3792 8399 3793 8397 3800 8401
3802 8377 3801 8374 3803 8366
$$
ABEWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 5, 4:18 AM EDT, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 4:18 AM EDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 418 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN. POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>086-111-114-116. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-109-110- 112-113-115-117>120. && SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JVM AVIATION...HAL
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 8:28 AM EDT, 17 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 828 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-106-108-111-114-116-061530- MONTGOMERY-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI- LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-CLAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMARGO...JEFFERSONVILLE... MOUNT STERLING...IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON... FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE... BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...STEARNS... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE... WEST LIBERTY...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...MANCHESTER 828 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BRING A LOCALIZED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF FLOODING OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. KYZ087-088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120-061530- BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-LESLIE- LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND... HARLAN...PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG... WHEELWRIGHT...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...HAZARD...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 828 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BRING A LOCALIZED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF FLOODING OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. KYZ044-051-052-104-061530- FLEMING-BATH-ROWAN-ELLIOTT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... SANDY HOOK 828 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HAL/JP
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 5, 6:28 AM EDT, 2 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 S BARTON 36.92N 84.13W
07/05/2015 WHITLEY KY 911 CALL CENTER
U.S. ROUTE 25W NEAR I-75 WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM
APPROXIMATELY 320 AM TO 530 AM.
&&
HALThe office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 8:09 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Leslie | 66 min |
| Jul 4, 8:18 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Laurel | 57 min |
| Jul 4, 8:24 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | McCreary, Wayne | 66 min |
| Jul 4, 8:53 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Clay, Laurel | 52 min |
| Jul 4, 9:44 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Clay, Knox, Laurel | 61 min |
| Jul 4, 10:05 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | Laurel | 115 min |
| Jul 4, 10:15 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | Clay | 2 hr |
| Jul 5, 12:06 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | Pulaski | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 12:17 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | Clay | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 12:56 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | Bath, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 26 more | 27 hr |
| Jul 5, 1:18 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | McCreary, Wayne | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 2:52 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Whitley | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 3:13 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | McCreary, Whitley | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 5:31 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Laurel, Rockcastle | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 8:22 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Estill, Menifee, Montgomery, Morgan, Powell, Wolfe | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 2:14 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Knott, Letcher, Perry | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 3:16 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Floyd, Pike | 119 min |
| Jul 5, 3:55 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Menifee, Powell | 2 hr |
| Jul 5, 3:58 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Pulaski | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 4:11 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Magoffin | 3 hr |
| Jul 5, 6:08 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Pulaski | 112 min |
| Jul 5, 6:17 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | McCreary, Wayne | 118 min |
| Jul 5, 6:43 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Bell, Harlan | 2 hr |
| Jul 5, 7:18 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Letcher | 117 min |
| Jul 5, 7:36 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | Martin | 114 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2015Every flash flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.