Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Jackson, KY

116 
WGUS73 KJKL 050220
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KYC051-050415-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150705T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLAY KY-
1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY...

AT 1018 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS   
CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES   
OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SINCE 8:30 PM. UP 
TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH 11 PM. MANY 
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL IN 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PIGEONROOST...SIBERT...COTTONGIN AND HERRON. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...HORSE CREEK...
WHITES BRANCH...COLLINS FORK...LAUREL RIVER...RICHLAND CREEK AND WEST
FORK PIGEON ROOST BRANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 8386 3705 8387 3706 8387 3707 8389
      3709 8386 3711 8388 3713 8378 3705 8379
      3704 8385

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN'T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-052300-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
350 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KAS/JP