Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...BROKEN SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON
TRACK WITH BROKEN SQUALL LINE JUST PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF INLD
SE GA (JEFF DAVIS/COFFEE/ATKINSON) AS OF 2 PM AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY E/SE WITH SMALL PORTIONS OF THE LINE
BECOMING STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
REMAINING THE MAIN THREAT. SECONDARY RE-SURGENCE IN STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR WHEN THIS BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION REACHES THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH INLAND TO AROUND TO U.S. 301 HIGHWAY CORRIDOR.
THE REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH A FEW ISOLD
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS THEN TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST AND
I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. ALL OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME OF THE
USUAL LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES IN THE HEAVIEST OF STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION ALONG THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD WEAKEN BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT LEAVING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT STALLS ALONG A LINE FROM COASTAL SE GA
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA. OTHERWISE EXPECT SEASONABLE MUGGY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE AXIS ALOFT THAT IS STALLED ACRS COASTAL SE GA
AND NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING
AND EXPECT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES OF 50-60% BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO INLD SE GA WITH RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40%. WITH
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND LINGERING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT...A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERS THE
SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH SOME
SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS STILL INTO THE 90-95 RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL HELP PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE
TO 105 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN...BRIEFLY ACROSS NE FL...BUT WILL LINGER
LONGER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY WHERE LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SURFACE LOW IN BASE OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SE
GA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DROPS TO NEAR GA/FL LINE WEDNESDAY. WITH
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS AREA SINKING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
ADVECT INTO NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...CONVECTION
WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S WILL TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SW INTO THE
GULF THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THIS PERIOD.

WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MUCH
OF SE GA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA. WITH THE HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING
THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS INLAND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S THIS PERIOD. AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATER IN THE PERIOD...READINGS NEAR THE
COAST WILL TREND DOWN THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH 20-21Z TIME FRAME THEN
CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MEET THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT STORMS TO IGNITE AND
DRIFT TOWARDS THE MAIN AXIS OF TAF SITES BTWN 22-24Z...SO HAVE
KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VRB20G30KT AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. LINGERING VCTS WILL LAST UNTIL 02-03Z TIME
FRAME WITH VCSH LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDS. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z MON...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF PACKAGE FOR
NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...A STALLED SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEK WITH A GENERAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  72  94 /  60  30  20  30
SSI  78  89  78  93 /  30  40  20  30
JAX  75  93  73  94 /  30  50  30  50
SGJ  77  90  75  92 /  20  40  30  40
GNV  75  93  74  94 /  50  50  40  50
OCF  75  93  74  94 /  50  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-240915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...BROKEN SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

BROKEN SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MERGE WITH EXISTING SEA BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION...WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AS WELL AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM DANNY MAY REACH OUR
COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON/HESS

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