Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /THRU WEDNESDAY/...
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIO TODAY THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY...
WITH MUCH EARLIER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID- LEVEL VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM COASTAL SE GA TO SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION OF NE FL. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL
SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...AND WILL BE OVER OUR SE COUNTIES WED
AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL
INTERIOR SE GA WHILE INCREASING HOURLY POPS NE FL. DECENT W TO SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR COAST
WHILE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ADVANCES EASTWARD. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL APPARENT BOUNDARIES DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF
NE FL WHICH MAY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NE FL EAST OF I-75 TO I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARD AND
JUST AFTER 00Z...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS THEN.

WILL SHOW GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT IN CORRIDOR
FROM GNV TO JAX. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WELL INLAND...UPR
70S COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.

FOR WED...MAY SEE EARLY START TO CONVECTION AGAIN...THIS TIME IN
OUR SE COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SE GA. WILL GENERALLY GO 20 POPS
WED...BUT WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER OUR SRN
COUNTIES OF SE GA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE START. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOW 90S
COAST...MID 90S INLAND NE FL...MID/UPR 90S INTERIOR SE GA.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY)...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA. OVER
GEORGIA AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE LAND AREAS
OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY EACH DAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 90S EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE WITH
HIGHER POPS NEAR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS OF 60-70 PERCENT FROM
GAINESVILLLE EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE GETS GOING. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH THE 104-108 RANGE ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND MOVING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE LOCAL CONVECTION WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTHEAST WITH A CONTINUATION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS WITHIN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF NE FL TOWARD 00Z...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND JUST SOUTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WILL GO WITH SCEC OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT
FOR SOUTHERLY SURGE OF 15-20KTS...MAY SEE SIMILAR OCCURRENCE IN
SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  76  97 /  40  20  20  30
SSI  79  91  79  90 /  30  20  30  40
JAX  75  95  78  94 /  50  50  30  40
SGJ  76  92  75  88 /  40  50  30  40
GNV  74  94  75  93 /  60  50  30  40
OCF  74  94  74  92 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
450 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-240900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
450 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...

...HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 60 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
FOR THEIR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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