Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
753 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE EVENING TSTORMS...

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF VERY SLOW MOVING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ERUPTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AS A LARGE LINE OF TSTORMS EDGES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER OUR
NORTHERN GA ZONES...WHILE REMNANT OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH THE
RIVER/SEA BREEZES NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER CORRIDOR. THE HRRR
CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE WELL COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT RANGE SUITE AND LEANED TOWARD ITS RESONABLE DEPICTION OF
EXPANSION OF TSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER CORRIDOR
THROUGH 9 PM...WITH SE GA ACTIVITY FOCUSING FARTHER INLAND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH VERY GRADUAL DISSIPATION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WHERE STRONG/SEVERE TSTORMS ARE MOST PROBABLE. LINGERING
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE UNDER WEAK MEAN LAYER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WESTWARD ACROSS
SE GA IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINGERING  SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION UNDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. MUGGY OVER
NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER
70S COAST. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN EVENING TSTORMS THEN PREVAILING VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVAILING VFR TUE THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN
TSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME NEAR
GNV AND INCLUDED VCTS AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH COMBINED SEAS 2-3 FT...UP TO 4
FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. GUSTY WINDS FROM TSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  74  97 /  70  40  20  40
SSI  78  91  78  90 /  20  30  30  30
JAX  75  96  76  95 /  60  30  30  30
SGJ  76  92  75  89 /  20  20  20  30
GNV  73  96  74  95 /  60  40  40  40
OCF  74  95  75  95 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/NELSON/PETERSON/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
518 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-230930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
518 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...

...WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
FOR THEIR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
832 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

GAZ132-230115-
COFFEE GA-
832 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM EDT...

AT 831 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
AMBROSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOUGLAS...BROXTON...AMBROSE AND PRIDGEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8314 3147 8312 3151 8308 3156 8306
      3161 8306 3163 8303 3163 8301 3166 8301
      3166 8300 3178 8300 3179 8299 3179 8293
      3142 8278 3142 8314 3144 8314 3146 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 307DEG 21KT 3158 8299

ENYEDI