Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...THE HEAT CONTINUES...
...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...AND WITH LESS OF A SUBSIDENT PATTERN
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTN. FOR
LATER THIS AFTN...AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZES MERGE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS...TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO MID END
SCATTERED. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE HEAT CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND 105.
EARLY EVENING RESIDUAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S
COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY...WITH SOME STORMS FURTHER EAST THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL USE MID/HIGH END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING SLIGHTLY AND A BIT
MORE STORM COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
THAN THIS AFTN...WITH MID/UPPER 90S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. WITH
DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER...THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH DURATION OF THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES SHORT
AND AT MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...REMNANTS OF BILL WILL
MOVE OVER THE SE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SE AS TRAILING
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SAGS SOUTH INTO GA ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT SW
STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEABREEZE MERGERS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REACH THE EAST COAST BY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH POPS INCREASING TO
NEAR AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REBUILD ACROSS GA FROM THE NW BY
MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS GA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SW FLOW RESULTING IN LATE
DAY SEABREEZE MERGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE USED VCTS FOR VQQ
AND GNV THIS AFTN AS TSTM COVERAGE IS WIDELY SCATTERED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  97 /  40  30  10  20
SSI  78  91  77  90 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  74  96  75  96 /  20  30  30  40
SGJ  76  90  75  90 /  10  30  20  40
GNV  74  95  72  95 /  20  40  10  40
OCF  75  94  73  95 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/ZIBURA/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-192045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
434 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. USE
EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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