Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Jacksonville, FL

June 18, 2015Marion County, Florida

NWS Jacksonville, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 18, 2015, 4:13 PM EDT for Marion County, Florida. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 18, 2015, 4:13 PM EDT (20:13 UTC)
Expired
Jun 18, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
In force
32 min
Issued by
NWS Jacksonville, FL
Area
Storm-based polygon

County Marion County, FL

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2015-06-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1442 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2015-06-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -5 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1442 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1054 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 18, 2:52 PM EDT, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 2:52 PM EDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...THE HEAT CONTINUES...
...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...AND WITH LESS OF A SUBSIDENT PATTERN
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTN. FOR
LATER THIS AFTN...AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZES MERGE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS...TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO MID END
SCATTERED. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE HEAT CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND 105.
EARLY EVENING RESIDUAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S
COAST.

FRIDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY...WITH SOME STORMS FURTHER EAST THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL USE MID/HIGH END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING SLIGHTLY AND A BIT
MORE STORM COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
THAN THIS AFTN...WITH MID/UPPER 90S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. WITH
DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER...THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH DURATION OF THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES SHORT
AND AT MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...REMNANTS OF BILL WILL
MOVE OVER THE SE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SE AS TRAILING
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SAGS SOUTH INTO GA ON SUNDAY. A LIGHT SW
STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEABREEZE MERGERS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REACH THE EAST COAST BY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH POPS INCREASING TO
NEAR AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REBUILD ACROSS GA FROM THE NW BY
MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS GA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SW FLOW RESULTING IN LATE
DAY SEABREEZE MERGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE USED VCTS FOR VQQ
AND GNV THIS AFTN AS TSTM COVERAGE IS WIDELY SCATTERED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  97 /  40  30  10  20
SSI  78  91  77  90 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  74  96  75  96 /  20  30  30  40
SGJ  76  90  75  90 /  10  30  20  40
GNV  74  95  72  95 /  20  40  10  40
OCF  75  94  73  95 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/ZIBURA/GUILLET
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 18, 3:54 AM EDT, 12 hours 19 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 18, 3:45 PM EDT, 28 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 18, 3:52 PM EDT, 21 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 18, 3:55 PM EDT, 18 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 18, 3:58 PM EDT, 15 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jun 18, 4:09 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Jacksonville, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 18, 3:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXBaker45 min
Jun 18, 3:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXBradford38 min
Jun 18, 3:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXMarion50 min
Jun 18, 3:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXSuwannee47 min
Jun 18, 4:09 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXMarion51 min
Jun 18, 4:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXNassau53 min
Jun 18, 4:32 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXDuval13 min
Jun 18, 4:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXMarion41 min
Jun 18, 4:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXClay27 min
Jun 18, 4:50 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXMarion40 min
Jun 18, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXMarion38 min
Jun 18, 4:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXAlachua48 min
Jun 18, 5:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXDuval28 min
Jun 18, 5:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXGilchrist44 min
Jun 18, 5:24 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXAlachua51 min
Jun 18, 5:29 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXClay31 min
Jun 18, 5:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXUnion30 min
Jun 18, 5:53 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXClay37 min
Jun 18, 6:00 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJAXClay, Putnam60 min
Jun 18, 6:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXClay, Putnam24 min
Jun 18, 6:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXPutnam27 min
Jun 18, 6:35 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXAlachua40 min
Jun 18, 5:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXCharlton33 min
Jun 18, 5:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXBrantley25 min
Jun 18, 6:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementJAXClinch50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.