Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

.UPDATE...ON TAKING A LOOK AT THE IMPRESSIVE FLOW AT LZK SOUNDING
THIS MORNING AND SOME FORECASTER COLLABORATION...OPTED TO SPREAD THE
LIMITED RISK FARTHER WEST WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK. SOME OF THE
HIRES MODELS SHOWS SOME STRONG CONVECTION COMING DOWN ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER./17/

&&

.AVIATION...DESPITE SOME CONVECTION IMPEDING UPON NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...KGTR...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH THE ONLY DEGRADATION OF CATEGORIES
COMING AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ON STATION.  CONVECTION
WILL BRING ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR
CEILINGS. WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 35-52 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING STRIKES.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. /19/

&&

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...426 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES A LITTLE FASTER THAN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WAS WEAKENING BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WAS NOTED UPSTREAM AND ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE 594DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS SENDING PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR CWA THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT
INSOLATION TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS DROPS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
TODAY AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OUR MOIST AIR MASS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE 00Z THU JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF TWO
INCHES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S IN OUR WEST AND
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106 TO
110. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OUR WESTERN ZONES
TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST FRIDAY AS RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME MORE LIMITED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT BUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FROM OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. SOME MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE LARGE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL
ROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...OUR MOIST AIR MASS AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN OUR EAST WILL BE HELD TO
THE MID 90S BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 106 AND 110 ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55
WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE DELTA. /22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WISH I COULD SAY THAT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWED COOLER WEATHER BUT THAT JUST ISNT THE CASE.
IN FACT...WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME OF THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR
THIS SUMMER ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RATHER LARGE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN EVEN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WITH US THIS WEEKEND AND APPROACH EVEN MORE
DANGEROUS LEVELS THAN WHAT WE HAD BEEN SEEING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACH AND WELL EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK
AND LIKELY FLIRT WITH RECORDS BUT THE COMBINATION OF THIS HEAT WITH
THE HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO RANGE FROM 110-115 ACROSS
THE DELTA REGION. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OF 105-110
DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SIGNIFICANT/ELEVATED RISKS IN THE
HWO AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE TIME APPROACHES
WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DELTA REGION.

HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS
GRIP OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY HOT ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES. MODELS
INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MY CWA. THIS MAY BRING SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND BRING PERHAPS SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON TUESDAY BUT THE HEAT WILL REMAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE
THAT SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC TRIES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH AND A RATHER LARGE UPPER LOW
DIPS SOUTHWEST FROM CANADA AND TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PW VALUES
ARE DEPICTED TO DROP TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH MORE
BEARABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  76  97  78 /  20  20  15  21
MERIDIAN      93  75  96  76 /  39  35  24  30
VICKSBURG     96  76  98  77 /  16  11   7  15
HATTIESBURG   96  76  98  78 /  22  17  19  22
NATCHEZ       96  76  97  78 /  10   7   5   8
GREENVILLE    96  76  97  77 /  31  26  15  19
GREENWOOD     92  75  96  76 /  54  42  17  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ034-040-041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

22/28/17/19

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

MSZ031-033-039-061945-
OKTIBBEHA MS-NOXUBEE MS-LOWNDES MS-
205 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA...
NORTHERN NOXUBEE AND SOUTHERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 205 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CRAWFORD...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STARKVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROOKSVILLE AROUND 210 PM CDT.
  DEERBROOK AROUND 215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3325 8831 3317 8874 3334 8880 3350 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 252DEG 43KT 3328 8868

BYB