Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THIS IS RESULTING IN INCREASED
HEAT STRESS AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TOMORROW TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELTA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0
INCHES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN ZONES. SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. /15/27/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAINS THE NEAR RECORD HEAT BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMBINED
WITH ENOUGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES.
FRIDAY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OUR MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW
OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
90S OVER OUR EAST BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR WEST. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 106 AND 110 WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE DELTA. SATURDAY THE
LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WHILE STRENGTHENING
OVER OUR CWA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL BE
HARD TO RULE OUT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES BUT GENERALLY HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER MUCH
OF OUR WEST WILL BE AROUND 100F WITH UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER 70 DEW POINTS TO RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 106 AND 110 AREAWIDE. THE TWO HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHERE NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. RECORD HIGHS RUN IN THE LOWER 100S AT MOST LOCATIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING AND EXCEEDING 100F
EACH DAY IS INCREASING ESPECIALLY OVER OUR DELTA REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLAMISS WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 24-27 DEG C
RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE 104 TO
107 DEG MARK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA REGION. AS THE HEAT PEAKS
EACH AFTERNOON DRIER AIR MAY MIX DOWN AND HELP OFFSET THE HIGH
HUMIDITY BUT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE
LOW WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST BUT A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
SAG INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY. NEITHER MODEL DEPICTS MUCH QPF WITH THE
FRONT BUT SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MODELS HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIMING HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  96  76  99 /  13  23  23  21
MERIDIAN      73  93  74  97 /  19  34  33  31
VICKSBURG     76  98  76  99 /  12  16  17   9
HATTIESBURG   76  96  76  98 /  17  27  23  29
NATCHEZ       76  95  76  96 /   9  11  13   9
GREENVILLE    77  97  76  99 /  19  25  23  16
GREENWOOD     75  94  75  97 /  20  37  30  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>042-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-034-035-040>042-047-
062115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
408 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THURSDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL BE FROM 106 TO 110 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE STAY HYDRATED AND VOID STRENUOUS
ACTIVITIES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106 TO
115 EACH DAY. THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
DELTA REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

MSZ019-025>027-036-062115-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-HOLMES-
408 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THURSDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THURSDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL BE FROM 106 TO 110 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE STAY HYDRATED AND VOID STRENUOUS
ACTIVITIES. IN ADDITION SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2,3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106 TO
115 EACH DAY. THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
DELTA REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-051-052-062115-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
408 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THURSDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THURSDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 105 ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITIONS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2,3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106 TO
110 EACH DAY. THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
DELTA REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

MSZ043-048>050-053>066-072>074-062115-
MADISON-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
408 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THURSDAY

HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
STAY HYDRATED AND VOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106 TO
115 EACH DAY. THE GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
DELTA REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

MSZ048-049-052230-
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-
500 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RANKIN COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FLORENCE...OR NEAR BYRAM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PEARL...STAR AND MONTEREY AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  BRANDON AROUND 520 PM CDT.
  PELAHATCHIE AND JOHNS AROUND 530 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3219 9030 3240 8982 3221 8973 3214 8973
      3205 9011 3205 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 247DEG 34KT 3214 9018

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
532 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

MSZ048-049-052315-
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-
532 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FLORENCE...OR NEAR RICHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLORENCE AROUND 540 PM CDT.
  RICHLAND AROUND 545 PM CDT.
  MONTEREY AROUND 600 PM CDT.
  PEARL AROUND 610 PM CDT.
  BRANDON AND FLOWOOD AROUND 615 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 9030 3239 9005 3216 8988 3205 9017
      3205 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 238DEG 10KT 3217 9018

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

MSZ046-052345-
KEMPER MS-
609 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KEMPER COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

AT 608 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF DE KALB...OR 14 MILES EAST OF PRESTON...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELECTRIC MILLS AROUND 635 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SCOOBA.

LAT...LON 3277 8837 3275 8863 3292 8868 3293 8866
      3293 8838 3285 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 254DEG 9KT 3286 8858

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSEDALE                33.85N 91.03W
08/05/2015                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF POWER POLE BLOWN DOWN IN ROSEDALE. TIME
            ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

&&

DCOX

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