Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN ISSUES THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPING MCS AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO OUR W/NW AND HOW WILL THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC OUTFLOW IMPACT STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OUR
WEATHER TODAY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A COMPACT AND POTENT MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE HAS ENHANCED WIND FLOW THROUGH
ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT UPPER JET TO OUR NW
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT WITH
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED A
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AND THAT IS A FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE SOME AND INTERACTING
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO SFC HEATING. WHAT IS REALLY
IMPRESSIVE IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
TO OUR W WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND MAY SHIFT
MORE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER W-CENTRAL AREAS. THE
ORIGINAL WATCH AREA WAS LEFT AS IS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
THERE FOR FLOODING AS THE BETTER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO
GET FOCUSED IN ANOTHER PART OF THE CWA. THE WATCH PRODUCT HAS BEEN
UPDATED ALONG WITH THE HWO AND GRAPHICS WHICH ILLUSTRATE THE THREAT
AREA BEST AS WE HAVE RE-ORIENTED THE ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.

AS FOR SVR STORM THREAT...INCREASED FLOW WILL BE COMBINING WITH 3500-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS. THE MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW
IS HOW THE SLOW MOVING MORNING COLD POOL IS OPPOSITE THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VECTORS. THIS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCING UPDRAFTS AND
LIKELY WHY STORMS HAVE BEEN TAME SO FAR. HOWEVER...AS THE ORIGINAL
COLD STALLS AND THE DEEPER PUSH COMES MORE E/SE FROM THE HEAVIER
RAINS JUST TO OUR W/NW (THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST
CARROLL AND ISSAQUENA) WE WILL LIKELY GET MORE INTERACTION WITH SB
INSTABILITY AND GENERATE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS TO THE S/SE. CURRENT OUTLOOK/GRAPHICS HANDLE THAT. WE MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE THE E-CENTRAL OR SE AREAS TO AN ELEVATED DEPENDING
ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND COLD POOL INTERACT.

AS FOR FORECAST MODIFICATIONS...BIG ADJ WERE MADE TO POPS AND TEMPS
WERE LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE N HALF AS RAIN COOLED CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATER WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER NOCTURNAL HEAVY RAIN COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT...STAY TUNED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
AND THE ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS. ACTIVITY ALREADY
AFFECTING SITES ALONG HIGHWAY 82 AND EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD TO SITES
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHBG WILL
BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL FOCUS ON
TIMING OF ACTIVITY GOING INTO TONIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  70  86  71 /  96  73  59  42
MERIDIAN      87  69  84  68 /  81  74  62  45
VICKSBURG     85  70  87  72 / 100  71  54  35
HATTIESBURG   91  71  86  72 /  83  62  64  33
NATCHEZ       86  72  88  73 /  98  56  62  25
GREENVILLE    80  70  86  72 / 100  48  46  32
GREENWOOD     80  70  84  70 /  98  60  45  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>043-047-048-053.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/SW/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MSZ050-051-057-041845-
NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-JASPER MS-
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN SCOTT
AND NEWTON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

AT 101 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LITTLE ROCK TO NEAR PULASKI...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST...NEWTON...LAWRENCE...DECATUR...HOMEWOOD...PULASKI...
GARLANDVILLE...ROBERTS...HICKORY...CHUNKY AND LAKE.

LAT...LON 3213 8932 3222 8932 3222 8965 3225 8973
      3227 8973 3253 8893 3223 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 284DEG 25KT 3248 8903 3224 8963

DL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MSZ057-041830-
JASPER MS-
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JASPER COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM CDT...

AT 104 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PAULDING...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF STRINGER...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORANGE AND PAULDING.

LAT...LON 3195 8891 3198 8919 3209 8918 3215 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 267DEG 20KT 3204 8912

DL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
115 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MSZ072-041900-
MARION MS-
115 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MARION COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM
CDT...

AT 115 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALEM TO NEAR SANDY
HOOK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBIA...SANDY HOOK...KOKOMO...HOLLY SPRINGS...MORGANTOWN...
PINEBUR...PICKWICK AND GOSS.

LAT...LON 3107 8984 3107 8992 3113 8994 3113 9001
      3117 9001 3118 9003 3123 9003 3124 9004
      3140 9004 3139 8990 3115 8965 3101 8965
      3100 8968 3100 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 238DEG 20KT 3126 9014 3101 8989

DL