Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Jackson, MS

July 4, 2015Clarke County, Jasper County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 4, 2015, 1:12 PM CDT for Clarke County, Jasper County, Mississippi. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 4, 2015, 1:12 PM CDT (18:12 UTC)
Expired
Jul 4, 2015, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
48 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Clarke County, MS, Jasper County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2015-07-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1040 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2015-07-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1040 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
911 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 4, 10:52 AM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 10:52 AM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...MAIN ISSUES THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPING MCS AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO OUR W/NW AND HOW WILL THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC OUTFLOW IMPACT STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OUR
WEATHER TODAY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A COMPACT AND POTENT MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW. THIS FEATURE HAS ENHANCED WIND FLOW THROUGH
ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY DIFFLUENT UPPER JET TO OUR NW
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT WITH
BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED A
LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AND THAT IS A FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE SOME AND INTERACTING
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO SFC HEATING. WHAT IS REALLY
IMPRESSIVE IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
TO OUR W WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. THIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND MAY SHIFT
MORE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER W-CENTRAL AREAS. THE
ORIGINAL WATCH AREA WAS LEFT AS IS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
THERE FOR FLOODING AS THE BETTER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO
GET FOCUSED IN ANOTHER PART OF THE CWA. THE WATCH PRODUCT HAS BEEN
UPDATED ALONG WITH THE HWO AND GRAPHICS WHICH ILLUSTRATE THE THREAT
AREA BEST AS WE HAVE RE-ORIENTED THE ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.

AS FOR SVR STORM THREAT...INCREASED FLOW WILL BE COMBINING WITH 3500-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS. THE MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW
IS HOW THE SLOW MOVING MORNING COLD POOL IS OPPOSITE THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VECTORS. THIS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCING UPDRAFTS AND
LIKELY WHY STORMS HAVE BEEN TAME SO FAR. HOWEVER...AS THE ORIGINAL
COLD STALLS AND THE DEEPER PUSH COMES MORE E/SE FROM THE HEAVIER
RAINS JUST TO OUR W/NW (THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST
CARROLL AND ISSAQUENA) WE WILL LIKELY GET MORE INTERACTION WITH SB
INSTABILITY AND GENERATE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS TO THE S/SE. CURRENT OUTLOOK/GRAPHICS HANDLE THAT. WE MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE THE E-CENTRAL OR SE AREAS TO AN ELEVATED DEPENDING
ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND COLD POOL INTERACT.

AS FOR FORECAST MODIFICATIONS...BIG ADJ WERE MADE TO POPS AND TEMPS
WERE LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE N HALF AS RAIN COOLED CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATER WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER NOCTURNAL HEAVY RAIN COMPLEX LATER
TONIGHT...STAY TUNED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE SHOWERS/STORMS
AND THE ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS. ACTIVITY ALREADY
AFFECTING SITES ALONG HIGHWAY 82 AND EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD TO SITES
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KHBG WILL
BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL FOCUS ON
TIMING OF ACTIVITY GOING INTO TONIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  70  86  71 /  96  73  59  42
MERIDIAN      87  69  84  68 /  81  74  62  45
VICKSBURG     85  70  87  72 / 100  71  54  35
HATTIESBURG   91  71  86  72 /  83  62  64  33
NATCHEZ       86  72  88  73 /  98  56  62  25
GREENVILLE    80  70  86  72 / 100  48  46  32
GREENWOOD     80  70  84  70 /  98  60  45  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>043-047-048-053.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/SW/
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 10:18 AM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 12:26 PM CDT, 46 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 4, 12:33 PM CDT, 39 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 4, 12:49 PM CDT, 23 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 4, 12:56 PM CDT, 16 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 4, 1:01 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MSZ050-051-057-041845-
NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-JASPER MS-
101 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN SCOTT
AND NEWTON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

AT 101 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LITTLE ROCK TO NEAR PULASKI...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST...NEWTON...LAWRENCE...DECATUR...HOMEWOOD...PULASKI...
GARLANDVILLE...ROBERTS...HICKORY...CHUNKY AND LAKE.

LAT...LON 3213 8932 3222 8932 3222 8965 3225 8973
      3227 8973 3253 8893 3223 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 284DEG 25KT 3248 8903 3224 8963

DL
Special weather statement, Jul 4, 1:05 PM CDT, 7 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MSZ057-041830-
JASPER MS-
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JASPER COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM CDT...

AT 104 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PAULDING...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF STRINGER...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORANGE AND PAULDING.

LAT...LON 3195 8891 3198 8919 3209 8918 3215 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 267DEG 20KT 3204 8912

DL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 3, 7:09 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANClay51 min
Jul 3, 7:24 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANIssaquena36 min
Jul 3, 7:29 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANYazoo46 min
Jul 3, 7:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANIssaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo51 min
Jul 3, 7:49 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANLowndes41 min
Jul 3, 8:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison37 min
Jul 3, 8:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANKemper43 min
Jul 3, 8:50 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANMadison25 min
Jul 4, 2:45 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANBolivar30 min
Jul 4, 3:37 AM CDTFlash Flood WatchJANAttala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw, Claiborne, Clay and 18 more11 hr
Jul 4, 3:40 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANBolivar50 min
Jul 4, 4:27 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANWashington33 min
Jul 4, 4:41 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANGrenada34 min
Jul 4, 6:30 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANCarroll, Montgomery3 hr
Jul 4, 10:54 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANWarren36 min
Jul 4, 11:27 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANMadison33 min
Jul 4, 11:43 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANHinds, Madison32 min
Jul 4, 11:57 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANLeake33 min
Jul 4, 12:10 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANRankin35 min
Jul 4, 12:26 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANKemper19 min
Jul 4, 12:33 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANKemper27 min
Jul 4, 12:49 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANCopiah, Simpson41 min
Jul 4, 1:01 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANNewton44 min
Jul 4, 1:05 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANJasper25 min
Jul 4, 1:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANMarion45 min
Jul 4, 1:30 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANLawrence, Lincoln, Simpson, Smith45 min
Jul 4, 1:37 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANJasper38 min
Jul 4, 1:41 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANLamar, Marion34 min
Jul 4, 1:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLawrence, Lincoln66 min
Jul 4, 1:59 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANClarke31 min
Jul 4, 2:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis36 min
Jul 4, 2:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClarke44 min
Jul 4, 2:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANForrest40 min
Jul 4, 2:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANForrest, Jones, Lamar62 min
Jul 4, 2:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJones50 min
Jul 4, 2:42 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANFranklin, Lincoln3 hr
Jul 4, 2:53 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence3 hr
Jul 4, 3:04 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANJones3 hr
Jul 4, 3:07 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANFranklin23 min
Jul 4, 12:01 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANTensas29 min
Jul 4, 1:56 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANConcordia49 min
Jul 4, 3:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANConcordia30 min
Jul 4, 6:56 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJANTensas49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.