Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
421 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE MODELS WERE DIFFERENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AND TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM AND THE HRR SOME ALSO FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE NORTHWARD...PULLING
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH IT. EXPECTING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED THE
BOUNDARY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST RAIN IN THE WEST.
WITH THE SUN BREAKING OUT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. STILL EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MOST FAVORABLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLE STRONG...COULD SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO
FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED WORDING WAS STILL GOOD.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAYBE
SHORTLY AFTER WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTH.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TAIL END OF THE CURRENT PASSING
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RIDING IT TO THE NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PATTERN WILL STAY THE SAME UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA. WITH
MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WE WILL GET SOME PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE LIKELY BE
CLOUDS AROUND...THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO 70S AND 50S EVERYWHERE.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET ENOUGH FLOW TO GET UP TO 80.

THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SPRING IS IN FULL SWING WITH
A NEW STORM SYSTEM EVERY FEW DAYS. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&
.AVIATION...ALL SITES CONTINUE TO BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN HAS
TAKEN A LITTLE WHILE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SOME LOWER CLOUD
COVER SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE RAIN
GETS CLOSER. THIS COULD BRING A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  72  59  74 /  91  40  31  58
MERIDIAN      60  76  58  75 /  84  40  30  61
VICKSBURG     56  72  59  74 /  91  38  31  58
HATTIESBURG   61  79  61  79 /  83  29  21  40
NATCHEZ       59  74  59  76 /  91  31  25  49
GREENVILLE    53  65  56  65 /  89  35  42  68
GREENWOOD     53  69  56  68 /  85  30  42  67

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

7/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
251 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
192000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
251 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

LAZ025-MSZ053-059-182155-
JEFFERSON MS-CLAIBORNE MS-TENSAS LA-
424 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED OVER CHURCH HILL AT 424 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TENSAS PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3191 9121 3181 9102 3163 9122 3168 9130
      3170 9129 3172 9131 3175 9132 3175 9137
      3174 9138 3175 9139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 219DEG 22KT 3175 9125

MRM

MSZ053-059-182225-
JEFFERSON MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
453 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
453 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED OVER LORMAN AT 453 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CLAIBORNE AND NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3200 9100 3188 9081 3172 9101 3182 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 218DEG 25KT 3181 9104

MRM

MSZ074-182330-
FORREST MS-
600 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAXIE AT 601 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3091 8935 3096 8935 3110 8923 3106 8914
      3100 8913 3091 8913 3090 8914 3091 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 216DEG 17KT 3091 8926

MRM

MSZ049-054-055-190005-
SIMPSON MS-RANKIN MS-COPIAH MS-
635 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF HOPEWELL AT 635 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL COPIAH...SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND NORTHWESTERN
SIMPSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3211 9008 3197 8992 3180 9017 3194 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 226DEG 32KT 3191 9019

MRM

MSZ049-055-056-190040-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-RANKIN MS-
710 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENDENHALL AT 710 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...NORTH CENTRAL SIMPSON AND
NORTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3223 8978 3212 8962 3192 8989 3205 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 226DEG 32KT 3202 8992

MRM

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