Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Jackson, MS

March 18, 2015Jones County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 18, 2015, 10:53 PM CDT for Jones County, Mississippi. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 18, 2015, 10:53 PM CDT (03:53 UTC)
Expired: Mar 18, 2015, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Jones County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -119 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1330 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

595 
WUUS54 KJAN 190353
SVRJAN
MSC067-190445-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0031.150319T0353Z-150319T0445Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1054 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OVETT...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8911 3166 8894 3143 8894 3143 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 246DEG 26KT 3149 8907

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MRM

1 follow-up statement

442 
WWUS54 KJAN 190415
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1115 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

MSC067-190426-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150319T0445Z/
JONES MS-
1115 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3160 8911 3166 8894 3143 8894 3143 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 246DEG 26KT 3155 8890

$$

MME

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 18, 9:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 18, 9:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
952 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SE. THE ONLY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND TO CUT POPS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE.
/27/

&&

.AVIATION...VICINTY TS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL 06Z AT ALL TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG. OTHERWISE...CIGS/VSBY WILL DROP
TO MVFR WITH RAIN EVNTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO FOG AFTER 06Z. THESE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE MODELS WERE DIFFERENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AND TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM AND THE HRR SOME ALSO FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE NORTHWARD...PULLING
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH IT. EXPECTING THE RAIN ASSOCIATED THE
BOUNDARY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE BEST RAIN IN THE WEST.
WITH THE SUN BREAKING OUT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. STILL EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND MOST FAVORABLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLE STRONG...COULD SEE A STRONG
STORM OR TWO FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED WORDING WAS STILL
GOOD. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE SHORTLY AFTER WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING FROM THE
SOUTH.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TAIL END OF THE CURRENT PASSING
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RIDING IT TO THE NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PATTERN WILL STAY THE SAME UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA. WITH
MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WE WILL GET SOME PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE LIKELY BE
CLOUDS AROUND...THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO 70S AND 50S EVERYWHERE.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET ENOUGH FLOW TO GET UP TO 80.

THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...SPRING IS IN FULL SWING WITH
A NEW STORM SYSTEM EVERY FEW DAYS. OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       62  72  59  74 /  82  40  31  58
MERIDIAN      63  76  58  75 /  80  40  30  61
VICKSBURG     60  72  59  74 /  82  38  31  58
HATTIESBURG   66  79  61  79 /  80  29  21  40
NATCHEZ       63  74  59  76 /  82  31  25  49
GREENVILLE    50  65  56  65 /  80  35  42  68
GREENWOOD     56  69  56  68 /  80  30  42  67

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 18, 2:51 PM CDT, 8 hours 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
251 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
192000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
251 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 18, 8:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

MSZ043-048>050-054>056-190215-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-COPIAH MS-
846 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL WAS LOCATED FROM FANNIN TO 6 MILES WEST OF BYRAM AT 845 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN OF ONE INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COPIAH...SOUTHEASTERN HINDS...SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON...RANKIN...SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3234 8950 3196 9006 3216 9051 3254 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 297DEG 28KT 3243 8995 3226 9010
          3218 9034

MRM

Special weather statement, Mar 18, 8:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before

LAZ025-026-MSZ059-060-190230-
ADAMS MS-JEFFERSON MS-TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-
859 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
859 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FROGMORE AT 859
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES...AND
NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3184 9137 3157 9120 3142 9163 3158 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 237DEG 28KT 3155 9159

MRM

Special weather statement, Mar 18, 9:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

MSZ055-056-064-065-190240-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-COVINGTON MS-
909 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
909 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER CLEM AT 909 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...
SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND SOUTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3191 8967 3170 8949 3153 8981 3169 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 229DEG 28KT 3170 8979

MRM

Special weather statement, Mar 18, 9:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

MSZ064-065-072>074-190320-
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-FORREST MS-COVINGTON MS-
950 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUMRALL AT 949 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN FORREST...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHWESTERN LAMAR AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
ALSO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM.

LAT...LON 3155 8949 3137 8935 3126 8961 3142 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 237DEG 22KT 3138 8958

MRM

Local storm report, Mar 18, 10:24 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             TAYLORSVILLE            31.83N 89.43W
03/18/2015  E1.00 INCH       SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEMA REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR TAYLORSVILLE.

&&

GRG

Local storm report, Mar 18, 10:41 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOSO                    31.75N 89.28W
03/18/2015                   JONES              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NWS STORM SPOTTER REPORTS LARGE LIMBS/BRANCHES DOWN IN
            SOSO.

&&

GRG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 18, 7:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Simpson	30 min
Mar 18, 7:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Rankin, Simpson, Smith	29 min
Mar 18, 7:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Washington	29 min
Mar 18, 7:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Smith	28 min
Mar 18, 8:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Jasper	31 min
Mar 18, 8:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Hinds	30 min
Mar 18, 8:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Rankin	29 min
Mar 18, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Hinds, Madison, Rankin	38 min
Mar 18, 9:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Jefferson Davis	31 min
Mar 18, 9:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Covington, Smith	46 min
Mar 18, 9:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lamar	30 min
Mar 18, 10:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jasper, Jones, Smith	42 min
Mar 18, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Forrest, Jones	51 min
Mar 18, 10:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clarke, Jasper, Jones	43 min
Mar 18, 11:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Clarke	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.