Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Jackson, MS

141 
WWUS54 KJAN 200230
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

LAC025-029-200245-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-150420T0245Z/
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
930 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL CONCORDIA AND SOUTHWESTERN CATAHOULA PARISHES...

AT 930 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ACME...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LARTO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SLOCUM AROUND 945 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3130 9200 3143 9200 3153 9152 3137 9151
      3143 9154 3142 9157 3141 9158 3132 9151
      3127 9152 3124 9181 3130 9193 3127 9195
      3123 9192 3122 9194 3124 9196 3123 9199
      3125 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 260DEG 29KT 3127 9184 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
856 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HAZARD PRODUCTS/FORECAST BASED ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THUS FAR...MAINLY TO RAISE SEVERE THREAT/POPS
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE LA INTO SW MS GIVEN CURRENT CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS CROSSING CENTRAL LA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH RECENT SPC SARS OUTPUT FAVORING ~ 4 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL OVER NE LA. AS EXPECTED...SHV/LCH/JAN 00Z SOUNDINGS
REVEAL RELATIVELY DRY DEEP LAYER COLUMNS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO
THREAT EXISTS IN PARTICULAR WITH THE RIGHT-MOVING CELLS AS SEEN THUS
FAR...AND THIS THREAT COULD INCREASE SOME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED
SUPERCELL CLUSTER OVER CENTRL LA APPROACHING EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH WITH
HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INSIST ON MORE FOCUSED DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES...BUT IT ISN'T HANDLING
THE CURRENT SCENARIO VERY WELL. HAVE DECREASED POPS JUST A LITTLE
ALONG/S OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR FOR NOW WITH EXPECTATION THAT
INCREASED COVERAGE WILL PAN OUT BUT PERHAPS NOT TO EXTENT THAT HRRR
IS SHOWING. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SVR TSRA COULD IMPACT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS AND
PERHAPS OVER TO GTR/MEI/HBG SITES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING BEFORE
MUCH DRIER AIR ENVELOPS THE ARKLAMISS WITH VFR CATEGORIES PREVAILING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

..LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A MAJOR CONCERN NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. DRY
WEATHER CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH AL PULLS AWAY AND A LARGER
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH) APPROACHES THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER. 18Z SOUNDINGS AT
LZK/SHV/JAN INDICATE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) IS ADVECTING
EAST IN ADVANCE OF SAID TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...LENDING A HIGH AMOUNT
OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND THERMAL
MID LAYER CAPPING UNDERNEATH THESE HIGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT (IE...A
LOADED GUN TYPE ENVIRONMENT) WILL REQUIRE NON-NEGLIGIBLE FORCING TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS WHY IT IS TOTALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION AT 4 PM. HOWEVER...A GLANCE BACK TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (A
SOURCE OF CONSOLIDATED LIFT) REVEALS VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING
EAST INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR BEFORE 10 PM
(POSSIBLY ENTERING ASHLEY CO AR AND MOREHOUSE PARISH BY 7 PM). ML
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...0-3 KM SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM 200-300 M2/S2...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KTS
SUGGEST A MIXED MODE OF GUSTY LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS IN
WESTERN ZONES. PARTICULARLY WITH SUPERCELLS COMING IN FROM THE WEST
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL OVER GOLF BALL SIZE WHILE
ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF WINDS TO 70 MPH OR MORE
(AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO SPINNING UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
QLCS ACTIVITY).

AS CONVECTION PUSHES TOWARD THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR IN THE LATE
EVENING TO NEAR MIDNIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE GRADUALLY WANING AND
MOST HIRES MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST STORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
HOLDING TOGETHER WITH ANY VIGOR SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THUS
THE ADVERTISED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DECREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE
EVENING LOOKS VERY ACCURATE.

EXPECT ALL STORMS TO BE WEAK AT BEST (OR HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST) BY
AROUND 3 AM. SOME SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MS UNTIL DAYBREAK...OR MAYBE EVEN A BIT BEYOND THAT NEAR THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. BUT...ALAS...BY MIDDAY IN ALL AREAS IT IS A GOOD
BET RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST PICTURE UNTIL AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS COMING IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS STORMS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID...BUT FORTUNATELY THERE IS
NO RISK FOR ANY FROST TO HAMPER GROWING TENDER VEGETATION.

BUT GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY (BUT MAYBE WAITING
UNTIL THURSDAY IF WE ARE LUCKY) AS A RATHER ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PREVIOUSLY TO OUR SOUTH
WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE SPRING TIME
AROUND HERE THIS IS A RECIPE FOR REPEATED OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME RISK OF POTENT STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN AND WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF DAYS.
FORTUNATELY...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE CRUX OF THE
STORMY PATTERN WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER BACK WEST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME HAZARDOUS IMPACT IN OUR REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW (AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES) THERE IS STILL TIME TO REFINE THINKING
BEFORE OFFICIALLY ADVERTISING ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND CREATING
DEDICATED GRAPHICS. /BB/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
707 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035-
040-041-210015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
GRENADA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
707 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...THIS EVENING

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH. A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LAZ026-MSZ027>033-036>039-042>045-047>049-053-054-059>061-210015-
CONCORDIA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN-
707 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER. THIS COMES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-210015-
KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
707 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             MANGHAM                 32.31N 91.77W
04/19/2015  E1.00 INCH       RICHLAND           LA   PUBLIC

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
857 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ075-MSZ034-200215-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-
857 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHICOT AND NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 857 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MCMILLAN CORNER...OR NEAR LAKE VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREENVILLE AROUND 915 PM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3329 9130 3342 9138 3353 9117 3348 9105
      3335 9099
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 248DEG 35KT 3337 9126

CME