Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
REMOVED RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING BUT WENT WITH
SCATTERED IN THE AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES. THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BLOW UP ALONG THE AXIS AROUND
THE AREA...WITH VERY LITTLE EXTENDING INTO THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS
AS IS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON WAS SINKING SOUTH
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE ENJOYING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHILE
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST MS/LA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY(FOR KGLH/KGWO/KGTR) AND INTO TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS. THESE
STORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT BUT IN ANY LOCATION THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR...MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  31  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

7/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
252 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>042-047-
302000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
252 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A RAYVILLE...TO YAZOO CITY...TO
WET POINT LINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAZ023-025-MSZ038-039-043>046-048>059-062>066-072>074-302000-
FRANKLIN-TENSAS-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
252 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...MAINLY LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-061-302000-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-ADAMS-FRANKLIN-
252 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LAZ025-026-MSZ054-059>062-300100-
TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-FRANKLIN MS-ADAMS MS-COPIAH MS-LINCOLN MS-
JEFFERSON MS-
717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN TENSAS PARISHES...SOUTHWESTERN COPIAH...NORTHERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN ADAMS AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 716 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PLEASANT HILL TO NEAR
STAMPLEY TO NEAR LEE BAYOU...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MCNAIR...ALLEN...STAMPLEY...PLEASANT HILL...UNION CHURCH AND
MCBRIDE AROUND 720 PM CDT.
  CASEYVILLE AND HAMBURG AROUND 725 PM CDT.
  KIRBY AND LOYD STAR AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  CHURCH HILL AROUND 755 PM CDT.
  NATCHEZ AND STANTON AROUND 800 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE ROXIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 9151 3194 9118 3192 9118 3187 9125
      3186 9101 3183 9084 3178 9084 3178 9074
      3184 9072 3163 9051 3146 9093 3151 9138
      3173 9152 3187 9158
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 319DEG 20KT 3171 9070 3162 9109 3182 9150

DC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LAZ015-023-300415-
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
1038 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISHES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1038 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BUCKNER...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LIDDIEVILLE AROUND 1045 PM CDT.
  WINNSBORO AND MANGHAM AROUND 1055 PM CDT.
  CROWVILLE AROUND 1110 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BASKIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 9202 3235 9157 3209 9156 3208 9191
      3209 9189 3209 9187 3212 9187 3214 9190
      3217 9190 3217 9198 3220 9198 3219 9201
      3223 9201 3225 9199 3225 9200 3228 9200
      3228 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 268DEG 32KT 3220 9193

JC