Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL BRING A FEW
SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SECOND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SWING ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TODAY DURING MAX HEATING AND HELP SUPPORT
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND TO
THE RED RIVER. A SURFACE RIDGE WAS ALSO NOTED NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THE WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION
MAY HINDER STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH BUT THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. HEIGHTS WL BE HIGHER
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED LIMIT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT A MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND WL STILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. PARAMETERS LOOK
LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY AND GREATEST POPS WL BE
CARRIED OVER OUR NORTHEAST. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CWA. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MODIFY SOME AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVES IN THE MODELS WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN US. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY AND TSTMS WL
CONT TO AFFECT THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. TSTM COVERAGE WL
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
AWAY FROM TSTMS VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION WL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BE FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NE WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  72  90  74 /  59  25  19  25
MERIDIAN      87  71  90  73 /  65  29  21  37
VICKSBURG     88  72  91  74 /  57  22  21  21
HATTIESBURG   88  72  91  73 /  56  24  32  22
NATCHEZ       89  73  90  74 /  52  21  25  21
GREENVILLE    88  73  92  75 /  50  26  24  43
GREENWOOD     87  72  90  74 /  63  29  26  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/17/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>059-062>066-
072>074-011030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MAY LEAD
TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-061-011030-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-ADAMS-FRANKLIN-
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MSZ046-052-301215-
LAUDERDALE MS-KEMPER MS-
650 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAUDERDALE AND SOUTHERN
KEMPER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 650 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR YORK TO NEAR MARTIN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAUDERDALE...MARION AND TOOMSUBA AROUND 715 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8841 3235 8865 3259 8892 3260 8892
      3261 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1150Z 285DEG 20KT 3253 8832 3252 8878

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
724 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ARZ075-MSZ034-301300-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-
724 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHICOT AND NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 724 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MCMILLAN CORNER...OR NEAR LAKE VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREENVILLE AROUND 750 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 9135 3349 9132 3350 9100 3319 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1224Z 277DEG 29KT 3340 9125

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
742 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MSZ052-301315-
LAUDERDALE MS-
742 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY
UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 742 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SAVOY...OR NEAR MERIDIAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ZERO AROUND 750 AM CDT.
  INCREASE AROUND 800 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3223 8880 3240 8877 3240 8848 3223 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1242Z 272DEG 31KT 3231 8873

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
06/30/2015                   CHICOT             AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A NUMBER OF STREETS...INCLUDING ARKANSAS AND MAIN
            STREETS...CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

AW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MSZ044-301345-
LEAKE MS-
808 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEAKE COUNTY UNTIL 845
AM CDT...

AT 807 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR THOMASTOWN...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SINGLETON AROUND 825 AM CDT.
  CARTHAGE AROUND 830 AM CDT.
  RENFROE AROUND 840 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE REDWATER AND STANDING
PINE.

LAT...LON 3262 8945 3276 8973 3293 8973 3293 8955
      3286 8932 3285 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 294DEG 26KT 3288 8972

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MSZ049-301400-
RANKIN MS-
831 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY UNTIL
900 AM CDT...

AT 831 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BRANDON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FANNIN AROUND 835 AM CDT.
  PELAHATCHIE AROUND 855 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3226 9011 3239 9009 3239 9007 3242 9007
      3242 9006 3244 9007 3243 8975 3236 8973
      3218 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1331Z 277DEG 27KT 3235 9001

DB