River Flood Warning 81, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CST DEC 26 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER PLOTS SHOWS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW. THIS FEATURE WAS BRINGING DEEP S-SW FLOW OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. OUR MILD TROPICAL AIRMASS CONTINUED OVER THE
REGION WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S DEWPOINTS. AREA 12Z SNDGS SHOWED A MIDLEVEL CAP ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL HINDER OUR SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY. WE MAY GET
A FEW WARM ADVECTION CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH
SPELLS ANOTHER DAY OF SOME POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HIGHS.

.CLIMATE...CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY
GREENVILLE...76 IN 1922
GREENWOOD....75 IN 2008
VICKSBURG....81 IN 1982
JACKSON......78 IN 1971
MERIDIAN.....77 IN 1982
HATTIESBURG..81 IN 1964

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING AT MOST SITES WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FEET. RAIN CHANCES WERE SMALL ACROSS
THE AREA...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WERE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR 20. WILL
BRING IN FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 18Z-6Z.

&&

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...509 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...ACTIVE AND WARM PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HELPED PERSIST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS IS FINALLY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...RAPIDLY FOCUSING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE NORTH AS WELL. THAT SAID...A SOUTHERLY TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH COULD INTERMITTENTLY INSTIGATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE TRIVIAL...BUT IN SOUTHERN AND FAR
EASTERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW VERY ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.
FOR NOW THE RISK FOR CREATING ISSUES IS CONSIDERING VERY MARGINAL
AND THUS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE HWO.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...EXPECT LOWS TO LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND AND
ANY SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO FILL IN WITH LOTS OF CU RELATIVELY QUICKLY. BUT DESPITE
THE LIMITED INSOLATION TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO 80
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS (WHICH IS NOT A GREAT FEAT CONSIDERING MANY
SPOTS WILL BE STARTING OFF THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER 70S). NEEDLESS
TO SAY...A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE TIED OR SET. TONIGHT WILL BE
EXTREMELY WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AFTER THE BRIEF RESPITE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS (AT LEAST EAST OF
THE MS RIVER) WILL STILL MANAGE TO SNEAK OUT ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY
(YET RATHER UNEVENTFUL) LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT A SIGNIFICANT
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE BIG BEND OF
TX BY AFTERNOON. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW...BUT THE
BIG PICTURE CONSENSUS IS PRETTY HIGH. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INCOMING UPPER LOW (AND LIFT ALSO TIED TO THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ARKLATEX) SHOULD START TO INSTIGATE SHOWERS AND
AT LEAST A FEW STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRE-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THAT CANNOT BE SAID FOR A SQUALL
LINE EXPECTED TO BLAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECEDING THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND PLENTY OF DEEP
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES. CURRENTLY THIS SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST IN WESTERN ZONES AND LINES UP WELL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THOSE AREAS.
FORTUNATELY...ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...THE RELATIVELY QUICK SYSTEM MOVEMENT SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DETAILS OF TIMING REMAIN A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER
MAY HOLD OFF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS IS WHETHER SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL MANIFEST IN AT LEAST WESTERN ZONES AS SOME
INGREDIENTS NECESSARY TO PRODUCE A DAMAGING DERECHO WILL BE IN
PLACE. OWING TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADVERTISING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL MAY
HAVE TO INCLUDE IT IN FUTURE UPDATES. /BB/

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE MAY BE
ON-GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS MONDAY MORNING...AND WE HAVE
THUS FOLLOWED HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND THIS "SHOULD" BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGING UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT WAVE PASSING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
DISTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL PER LATEST GEFS/ECENS...AND
THE INTRUDING WARM SECTOR COULD POTENTIALLY RAISE TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL ONE MORE TIME BEFORE A SHARPER PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS
LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AS A
STEADY INFLUX OF POLAR AIR DEVELOPS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A ROUND OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE APPROACH NEW YEARS
DAY. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  69  79  58 /  17  16  37  94
MERIDIAN      78  67  77  65 /  29  17  27  72
VICKSBURG     82  69  80  54 /  14  15  37 100
HATTIESBURG   79  69  79  64 /  28  18  33  87
NATCHEZ       82  70  80  53 /  16  19  40 100
GREENVILLE    79  68  78  55 /  18  22  52 100
GREENWOOD     80  69  78  58 /  17  18  39  96

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

17/BB/EC/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271200-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
557 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS HIGHEST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

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   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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