Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Indianapolis, IN

693 
WWUS53 KIND 231915
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INC027-055-083-153-231930-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-151223T1930Z/
GREENE IN-KNOX IN-SULLIVAN IN-DAVIESS IN-
215 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EST
FOR WESTERN GREENE...KNOX...SULLIVAN AND WESTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES...

AT 214 PM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALESTINE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PATOKA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINCENNES...WASHINGTON...LINTON...SULLIVAN...RUSSELLVILLE...
BICKNELL...JASONVILLE...DUGGER...LYONS...CARLISLE...ELNORA...
OAKTOWN...MONROE CITY...WHEATLAND...BRUCEVILLE...PLAINVILLE...
SANDBORN...MONTGOMERY...EDWARDSPORT AND DECKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA.

LAT...LON 3847 8760 3854 8767 3859 8761 3864 8762
      3874 8750 3886 8755 3896 8751 3899 8758
      3899 8756 3909 8762 3917 8724 3917 8710
      3851 8702 3854 8711 3852 8715 3855 8720
      3851 8730 3854 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 248DEG 47KT 3908 8754 3846 8749 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH AND BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY
FORECAST. A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS SYSTEMS...THE FIRST ONE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THEN
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN FROM
THESE SYSTEMS...AND LATER ONES MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL FINISH OUT THE YEAR IN A WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 947 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOW DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN
THE VERY HIGH 60S. RADAR SHOWS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS...MOVING NORTHEAST.

RAPID REFRESH AND NAM SUGGEST THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH
EAST INTO INDIANA BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWER POPS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT RAMPED
BACK UP TO CATEGORICAL BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ARRIVES. GIVEN
THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 426 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND TRANQUIL. EARLIER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY HAVE BEEN PUSH BACK TO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS ARE PROJECTING THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL NOT
LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY FOR NOW. INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE NEXT DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EXTREMELY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE ON A PERSISTENT 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN WITH MODEL TENDENCIES TO BE OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WOULD BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...99TH
PERCENTILE OR GREATER...NEARING THE MAXIMUM EXPECTED VALUE FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS MERITED
ACROSS AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

MODEL BLENDED FORECASTS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF 5 PLUS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD BE HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THAT.

NONETHELESS...EVEN WITH THE AREA HAVING BEEN BELOW NORMAL ON
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS OR SO...THE DECREASED ACTIVITY
OF VEGETATION DURING THE COOL SEASON...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
DURATION AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL PRESENT A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

WINDS 19020G30KTS ON AVERAGE BECOME 24020G30KTS AFTER 240300Z WILL
BE ONE CONCERN. THUNDERSTORMS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 232300Z.

DECKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AND MAINLY BELOW 2000 FT UNTIL
COLD FRONT PASSES 03Z-05Z. VISIBILITY WILL BE P6SM. IFR DECKS AND
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR DURING THUNDERSTORMS.

ALL THIS THE RESULT OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM EASTERN
KANSAS NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TUCEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
443 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-240945-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-
TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-
RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-
MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
443 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES.
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

TIMING: 2 TO 10 PM.

DISCUSSION: A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL INCREASE.

DISCUSSION: ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAIN FROM RECENT SYSTEMS...AND LATER ONES MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL FINISH OUT THE YEAR IN A WARM AND
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1225 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ028-029-035-036-043-044-051-231745-
PARKE-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-VERMILLION-VIGO-
1225 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
VIGO...VERMILLION...PARKE... TIPPECANOE...WESTERN
MONTGOMERY...FOUNTAIN AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 1222 PM EST...SHOWERS WERE IN EASTERN ILLINOIS FROM DANVILLE TO
PARIS...OR 17 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAFAYETTE...TERRE HAUTE...WEST LAFAYETTE...CLINTON...COVINGTON...
ROCKVILLE...VEEDERSBURG...WILLIAMSPORT...NEWPORT...ATTICA...WEST
TERRE HAUTE...SHADELAND...FAIRVIEW PARK...BATTLE GROUND...
PRAIRIETON...PRAIRIE CREEK...CAYUGA...MONTEZUMA...WAYNETOWN AND
LINDEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 170 AND 184.
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 8.
 INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 31.

LAT...LON 3934 8758 3935 8753 4047 8752 4048 8709
      4056 8709 4056 8670 3961 8719 3926 8756
      3926 8759
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 234DEG 52KT 3999 8722

DRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
120 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ047-048-054-055-062-063-231900-
MARION IN-HANCOCK IN-JOHNSON IN-MORGAN IN-BROWN IN-MONROE IN-
120 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION...NORTHWESTERN BROWN...
WESTERN HANCOCK...NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...EASTERN MORGAN AND
NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EST...

AT 120 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MARTINSVILLE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INDIANAPOLIS...GREENWOOD...LAWRENCE...FRANKLIN...GREENFIELD...BEECH
GROVE...MARTINSVILLE...SPEEDWAY...MOORESVILLE...SOUTHPORT...NEW
WHITELAND...CUMBERLAND...MCCORDSVILLE...WHITELAND...BARGERSVILLE...
FORTVILLE...NEW PALESTINE...MERIDIAN HILLS...BROOKLYN AND WARREN
PARK.

LAT...LON 3970 8588 3970 8595 3962 8595 3924 8632
      3933 8652 3992 8615 3995 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 213DEG 62KT 3936 8636

DRT